Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction: Why Boston is favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [8/10/2026]

The Toronto Blue Jays will square off with the Boston Red Sox in MLB action at Rogers Centre on Monday, beginning at 7:07 PM ET.

Jameson Taillon (2-6, 5.96 ERA) will start for the Blue Jays, up against Sonny Gray (14-2, 2.78 ERA) for the Red Sox.

Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Red Sox as the most likely winner in this Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

For more, dive into Sonny Gray's projected pitching stats.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB matchup between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Red Sox a 57.2% chance of defeating the Blue Jays.

According to our model, the Blue Jays (+1.5) have a 55.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 53.2% chance of going over,.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays odds [8/10/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Red Sox -1.5 (+113) / Blue Jays +1.5 (-113)
• Moneyline: Red Sox -150, Blue Jays +149

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Blue Jays +1.5 @ -113 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Blue Jays @ +149 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 8.5 @ +106 via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays game-day updates and essential details

Monday's MLB game between the Blue Jays and Red Sox at Rogers Centre is scheduled to begin at 7:07 PM ET.

• Who: Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
• Date: Monday, August 10, 2026
• Time: 7:07 PM ET/4:07PM PT
• Venue: Rogers Centre

Conclusion

We predict the Red Sox, with a 57.2% win probability, will likely beat the Blue Jays in Monday's MLB matchup.

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