Santos Laguna vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Santos Laguna vs. Toluca Liga MX match on January 14, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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LIGA MX
Santos Laguna
1
3
Toluca
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
Santos LagunaSAN
H. Ortega (o.g.) (50')
Soccer ball icon
M. Ruiz (53')
Soccer ball icon
Helinho (pen.) (60')
Soccer ball icon
F. Villalba (21')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Santos Laguna
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 84'
    Yellow Card
    C. Gruezo (Santos Laguna) cautioned
  2. 82'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz replaces J. Angulo
  3. 72'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Santos Laguna: S. Mariscal Murra replaces L. Di Yorio
  4. 70'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Cordova replaces Helinho
  5. 69'
    Yellow Card
    B. Amione (Santos Laguna) cautioned
  6. 69'
    Yellow Card
    E. Orona (Santos Laguna) cautioned
  7. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces N. Castro
  8. 64'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Santos Laguna: T. Jimenez replaces E. Bullaude
  9. 60'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho (pen.)
    1-3
  10. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Santos Laguna: K. Palacios replaces R. Sordo
  11. 57'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Santos Laguna: A. Lopez replaces J. Guemez
  12. 53'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by M. Ruiz
    1-2
  13. 50'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Toluca by H. Ortega (o.g.)
    1-1
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: S. Simon replaces F. Pumpido
  15. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Toluca: E. del Villar replaces A. Briseno
  16. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Santos Laguna: C. Dajome replaces K. Picon
  17. 46'
    Yellow Card
    F. Villalba (Santos Laguna) cautioned
  18. 38'
    Yellow Card
    K. Picon (Santos Laguna) cautioned
  19. 34'
    Yellow Card
    Helinho (Toluca) cautioned
  20. 34'
    Yellow Card
    M. Ruiz (Toluca) cautioned
  21. 32'
    Yellow Card
    J. Guemez (Santos Laguna) cautioned
  22. 21'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Santos Laguna by F. Villalba, assisted by E. Bullaude
    1-0

Santos Laguna vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Santos Laguna vs. Toluca
  • Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026
  • Time: 10:10 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Santos Laguna +1000, Toluca -475, draw +700

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Santos Laguna: 7.6%
  • Toluca: 80.1%
  • Draw: 12.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Santos Laguna 0-2 Toluca (9.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
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Who will win Santos Laguna vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 80.1%.

The most likely correct score is Santos Laguna 0-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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Responsible gambling

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