Santos Laguna vs. Toluca Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Santos Laguna vs. Toluca Liga MX match on January 14, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
FINAL
LIGA MX
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
LMX sport icon
LIGA MX
Santos Laguna
1
3
Jan 14, 10:10 PM ET
Toluca
Jan 14, 10:10 PM ET
TolucaTOL
Score Summary
Santos LagunaSAN
H. Ortega (o.g.) (50')
Soccer ball icon
M. Ruiz (53')
Soccer ball icon
Helinho (pen.) (60')
Soccer ball icon
F. Villalba (21')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Toluca
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Santos Laguna
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
84'
Yellow Card
C. Gruezo (Santos Laguna) cautioned
82'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: J. Diaz replaces J. Angulo
72'
Substitution
Substitution for Santos Laguna: S. Mariscal Murra replaces L. Di Yorio
70'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: S. Cordova replaces Helinho
69'
Yellow Card
B. Amione (Santos Laguna) cautioned
69'
Yellow Card
E. Orona (Santos Laguna) cautioned
64'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: P. Perez replaces N. Castro
64'
Substitution
Substitution for Santos Laguna: T. Jimenez replaces E. Bullaude
60'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by Helinho (pen.)
1-3
57'
Substitution
Substitution for Santos Laguna: K. Palacios replaces R. Sordo
57'
Substitution
Substitution for Santos Laguna: A. Lopez replaces J. Guemez
53'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by M. Ruiz
1-2
50'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Toluca by H. Ortega (o.g.)
1-1
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: S. Simon replaces F. Pumpido
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Toluca: E. del Villar replaces A. Briseno
46'
Substitution
Substitution for Santos Laguna: C. Dajome replaces K. Picon
46'
Yellow Card
F. Villalba (Santos Laguna) cautioned
38'
Yellow Card
K. Picon (Santos Laguna) cautioned
34'
Yellow Card
Helinho (Toluca) cautioned
34'
Yellow Card
M. Ruiz (Toluca) cautioned
32'
Yellow Card
J. Guemez (Santos Laguna) cautioned
21'
Soccer ball icon
Goal scored for Santos Laguna by F. Villalba, assisted by E. Bullaude
1-0

Featured offers

Swipe iconSwipe across to view more offers
logo
RECOMMENDED
Deposit $10, Get a $20 Trading Bonus!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
FEATURED
New DraftKings Customers: Spend $5+ Get $150 in Bonus Bets *Paid Within 14 Days
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets if your bet wins!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
TRENDING
Bet $10 Get $150 in Bonus Bets
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW
Trade $10, Get $20 with Code DIMERS
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Get $350 in Bonus Bets Guaranteed - When You Bet $5 for 7 Days!
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
LIMITED-TIME
Register with code DIMERS150 to unlock $150 in bonus bets by winning your first $10 bet
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
RECOMMENDED
Double Your Winnings on your Next 10 Wagers. Up to $25 Max Bet Per Boost
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
RECOMMENDED
Code DIMERS: Trade $10, Get $10
T&Cs apply.
How to claim
logo
NEW PLAYERS
Get Up To $250 Back in Bonus Bets If Your First Bet Loses
T&Cs apply.
How to claim

Santos Laguna vs. Toluca: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Santos Laguna vs. Toluca
  • Date: Wednesday, January 14, 2026
  • Time: 10:10 PM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Santos Laguna +1000, Toluca -475, draw +700

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Santos Laguna: 7.6%
  • Toluca: 80.1%
  • Draw: 12.3%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Liga MX data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Santos Laguna 0-2 Toluca (9.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

Want Dimers' best bets for this matchup?

The most probable outcome isn't always the wisest wager.

The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

Join Dimers Pro to unlock complete betting analysis for this matchup across every major market, including:

  • Today's best bets
  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

Unlock today's best bets for this match with a free 3-day trial—cancel anytime.

Who will win Santos Laguna vs. Toluca? Prediction & correct score

Toluca is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 80.1%.

The most likely correct score is Santos Laguna 0-2 Toluca.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

Responsible gambling

Dimers' predictions and betting insights are designed to help inform your betting decisions. If you're betting on Santos Laguna vs. Toluca, always gamble responsibly and within your means. For support, you can visit our responsible gambling resources.