Toluca vs. Juarez prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [8/30/2026]

Toluca will face Juarez in Liga MX action on Sunday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Toluca as the most likely winner in this Toluca vs. Juarez prediction.

This article offers further insights into Sunday's match, including best bets and picks.

Toluca vs. Juarez prediction: Who will win?

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's Liga MX matchup between Toluca and Juarez, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently suggests a 74.1% chance of Toluca winning, a 10.4% chance for Juarez, and a 15.5% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 67.2% chance of going over, with a 53.9% likelihood that both teams score.

Toluca vs. Juarez odds

We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Juarez +700, Toluca -295

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Toluca vs. Juarez picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Toluca @ -295 via DraftKings
• Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ -215 via FanDuel

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Toluca vs. Juarez: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 2-0 Toluca win being the most probable:

• Toluca 2-0 Juarez (10.5% probability)
• Toluca 2-1 Juarez (9.2%)
• Toluca 3-0 Juarez (9%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 53.9% chance of both sides finding the net and a 46.1% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Toluca vs. Juarez game-day updates and essential details

Sunday's action between Toluca and Juarez is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Toluca vs. Juarez
• Date: Sunday, August 30, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Toluca has a 74.1% win probability on Sunday, Juarez has a 10.4% win probability, and there is a 15.5% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.