Guadalajara vs. Toluca prediction, odds, Liga MX picks [7/18/2026]

Guadalajara and Toluca will meet in Liga MX at Estadio Akron on Saturday, with kickoff at 9:07 PM ET.

Based on the latest simulation results, Dimers' advanced Liga MX model projects Guadalajara as the most likely winner of the Guadalajara vs. Toluca game.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Guadalajara vs. Toluca prediction: Who will win?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Liga MX game between Guadalajara and Toluca, forming part of our Liga MX predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model suggests a 40.7% chance of Guadalajara winning, a 34.4% chance for Toluca, and a 24.9% chance of a draw.

Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 54.6% chance of going over, with a 57.8% likelihood that both teams find the net.

Guadalajara vs. Toluca odds

We have researched the best Liga MX odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Moneyline

Guadalajara	Toluca	Draw
+100	+280	+270

Total Goals

Over 2.5	Under 2.5
-145	+115

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Guadalajara vs. Toluca picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Toluca @ +280 via Bet365
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +115 via Bet365

According to our Liga MX best bets, the top play to make on this game is Toluca to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Guadalajara vs. Toluca: Correct score and BTTS predictions

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-1 draw being the most probable:

Final Score	Probability
GUA 1-1 TOL	11.7%
GUA 2-1 TOL	8.8%
GUA 1-0 TOL	8.6%

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 57.8% chance of both sides finding the net and a 42.2% chance that at least one doesn’t.

These predictions are based on each team's average score according to our machine learning model, meaning the most likely correct score may differ from our predicted winner.

Guadalajara vs. Toluca game-day updates and essential details

Saturday's matchup between Guadalajara and Toluca at Estadio Akron is scheduled to commence at 9:07 PM ET.

• Who: Guadalajara vs. Toluca
• Date: Saturday, July 18, 2026
• Time: 9:07 PM ET/6:07PM PT
• Venue: Estadio Akron

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Guadalajara has a 40.7% win probability on Saturday, Toluca has a 34.4% win probability, and there is a 24.9% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.