Southern Illinois vs. Murray State prediction: Why Southern Illinois is favored to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Southern Illinois vs. Murray State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Southern Illinois an 87.4% chance of beating Murray State. Our predicted final score has Southern Illinois winning 34-18. According to our model, Murray State (+17.5) has a 53.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 53.5 points has a 50.2% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Southern Illinois -17.5 (-106) / Murray State +17.5 (-115)
• Moneyline: Southern Illinois -820, Murray State +550
• Total: Over/Under 53.5 (-111/-111)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Murray State +17.5 @ -115 via bet365
• Moneyline: Southern Illinois @ -820 via DraftKings
• Total: Over 53.5 @ -111 via DraftKings

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Murray State +17.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football action between Murray State and Southern Illinois at Roy Stewart Stadium is scheduled to commence at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: Southern Illinois vs. Murray State
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Roy Stewart Stadium

College football Week 4 promos

Make the most of Dimers' Southern Illinois vs. Murray State predictions by exploring the Bet365 Sportsbook offer below:

Conclusion

We predict Southern Illinois, with an 87.4% win probability, will likely beat Murray State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.