South Dakota State vs. Illinois State prediction: Why South Dakota State is favored to win in college football Week 5 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of South Dakota State vs. Illinois State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives South Dakota State a 50.5% chance of defeating Illinois State. Our predicted final score has South Dakota State winning 27-26. According to our model, Illinois State (+2.5) has a 53.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 55.5 points has a 54.3% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: South Dakota State -2.5 (-115) / Illinois State +2.5 (-125)
• Moneyline: South Dakota State -124, Illinois State +100
• Total: Over/Under 55.5 (-115/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Illinois State +2.5 @ -125 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Illinois State @ +100 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 55.5 @ -115 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 55.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Illinois State and South Dakota State at Hancock Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:00 PM ET.

• Who: South Dakota State vs. Illinois State
• Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
• Venue: Hancock Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict South Dakota State, with a 50.5% win probability, will likely beat Illinois State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.