Duke vs. Michigan State prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 10, 2026

Duke is favored to beat Michigan State at United Center on Tuesday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our Duke vs. Michigan State prediction gives the Blue Devils a 72.8% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Michigan State to cover at +7.5.

This game is part of the State Farm Champions Classic at the United Center in Chicago, the annual early-season doubleheader featuring four of college basketball's most decorated programs.

Duke vs. Michigan State key predictions

• Predicted score: Duke 75-69 Michigan State
• Duke win probability: 72.8%
• Michigan State win probability: 27.2%
• Michigan State +7.5 spread: 57.3% cover probability
• Under 144.5 points: 53.2% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

Duke vs. Michigan State odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Duke moneyline: -278 (DraftKings)
• Michigan State moneyline: +275 (BetMGM)
• Duke -7.5: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Michigan State +7.5: -105 (BetMGM)
• Over 144.5 points: -115 (BetRivers)
• Under 144.5 points: -108 (BetRivers)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Duke vs. Michigan State pick: Michigan State +7.5 (-105)

Our model makes Duke the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Spartans to cover the +7.5 spread at -105 on BetMGM.

Those odds give Michigan State an implied cover probability of 51.2%, while our model puts it at 57.3%.

That's a 6.1% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

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Duke vs. Michigan State game details

• Matchup: Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan State Spartans
• Date: Tuesday, November 10, 2026
• Time: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: United Center
• Tournament details: 2026 NBA Cup

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

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