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Lightning vs. Stars Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Lightning vs. Stars NHL game on January 18, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NHL
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NHL
Lightning
4
1
Jan 18, 7PM American Airlines Center
Stars
Jan 18, 7PM American Airlines Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Dimers Pro Best Bets
TEAM123T
Lightning
1 2 1 4
Stars
1 0 0 1
Live Probabilities
Moneyline
Over / Under
LightningTB
Win %
100%
0%
StarsDAL
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Lightning
1 2 1 4
Stars
1 0 0 1
P3 17:56 Goal scored by Pontus Holmberg
P3 17:30 Jason Robertson shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 16:37 Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 16:31 Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
P3 14:46 Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 14:00 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 13:42 Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 12:53 Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
P3 10:52 Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
P3 10:41 Dominic James shot blocked by Esa Lindell
P3 09:19 Power play - Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 09:10 Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Radek Faksa saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 06:31 Shot missed by Kyle Capobianco
P3 04:45 Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 04:03 Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P3 03:16 Ilya Lyubushkin shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
P3 01:54 Shot on goal by Mavrik Bourque saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 00:46 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 00:35 Roope Hintz shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P2 18:26 Shot on goal by Mikko Rantanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
Play by Play
P1
P2
P3
GOALS
ALL
P3 20:00
End of 3rd Period.
P3 19:51
Dominic James won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in neutral zone
P3 19:51
Stoppage - High Stick
P3 18:29
Nick Paul won faceoff against Colin Blackwell in offensive zone
P3 17:59
Dominic James won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in neutral zone
P3 17:56
GOAL
Goal scored by Pontus Holmberg
4-1
P3 17:30
SHOT
Jason Robertson shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
P3 17:17
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
P3 17:17
Stoppage - Puck in Netting - Home Timeout
P3 16:37
SHOT
Shot missed by Anthony Cirelli
P3 16:31
SHOT
Anthony Cirelli shot blocked by Miro Heiskanen
P3 16:05
Wyatt Johnston won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P3 15:03
Takeaway by Dominic James in defensive zone
P3 14:46
SHOT
Shot missed by Nick Paul
P3 14:27
Roope Hintz won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
P3 14:27
Stoppage - Icing
P3 14:00
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 13:55
Roope Hintz won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P3 13:42
SHOT
Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jake Oettinger
P3 12:57
Roope Hintz won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
P3 12:53
SHOT
Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
P3 12:20
Radek Faksa credited with hit on Declan Carlile in offensive zone
P3 11:17
Takeaway by Charle-Edouard D'Astous in offensive zone
P3 10:52
SHOT
Gage Goncalves shot blocked by Ilya Lyubushkin
P3 10:41
SHOT
Dominic James shot blocked by Esa Lindell
P3 09:46
Giveaway by Pontus Holmberg in neutral zone
P3 09:30
Roope Hintz won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
P3 09:19
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 09:10
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Radek Faksa saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 08:51
Shorthanded - Takeaway by Justin Hryckowian in defensive zone
P3 08:33
Power play - Oliver Bjorkstrand credited with hit on Miro Heiskanen in offensive zone
P3 07:48
Shorthanded - Sam Steel won faceoff against Jack Finley in defensive zone
P3 07:48
Stoppage - Puck in Crowd
P3 07:26
Penalty to Colin Blackwell 2 minutes for Interference
P3 07:26
Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
P3 06:31
SHOT
Shot missed by Kyle Capobianco
P3 05:09
Giveaway by Erik Cernak in offensive zone
P3 05:06
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in offensive zone
P3 05:06
Stoppage - Icing
P3 04:45
SHOT
Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
P3 04:03
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P3 03:16
SHOT
Ilya Lyubushkin shot blocked by Gage Goncalves
P3 02:31
Jack Finley credited with hit on Thomas Harley in neutral zone
P3 02:12
Giveaway by Oskar Back in defensive zone
P3 01:57
Nick Paul won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in defensive zone
P3 01:54
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mavrik Bourque saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 00:46
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 00:35
SHOT
Roope Hintz shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P3 00:00
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Roope Hintz in neutral zone
P2 20:00
End of 2nd Period.
P2 18:50
Roope Hintz won faceoff against Dominic James in neutral zone
P2 18:26
SHOT
Shot on goal by Mikko Rantanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 18:13
SHOT
Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Nick Paul
P2 17:48
Jack Finley won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in defensive zone
P2 17:38
SHOT
Justin Hryckowian shot blocked by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
P2 17:25
SHOT
Shot on goal by Justin Hryckowian saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 16:39
Jamie Benn won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
P2 16:15
Shorthanded - Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in defensive zone
P2 16:12
Power play - Giveaway by Jason Robertson in offensive zone
P2 14:59
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Mikko Rantanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 14:53
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Wyatt Johnston saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 14:35
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P2 14:33
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Roope Hintz saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 14:20
Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Interference (Drawn by Mikko Rantanen)
P2 14:11
SHOT
Shot on goal by Thomas Harley saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 13:45
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Jake Oettinger
P2 13:34
Radek Faksa won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
P2 13:34
Stoppage - Skater Puck Frozen
P2 11:56
SHOT
Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Jake Oettinger
P2 11:10
Oliver Bjorkstrand credited with hit on Nils Lundkvist in offensive zone
P2 11:04
Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
P2 11:00
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P2 10:49
SHOT
Shot on goal by Sam Steel saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 10:37
SHOT
Shot on goal by Anthony Cirelli saved by Jake Oettinger
P2 10:20
Wyatt Johnston won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P2 10:19
SHOT
Shot on goal by Wyatt Johnston saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 10:16
SHOT
Shot on goal by Ilya Lyubushkin saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 09:14
Colin Blackwell credited with hit on Erik Cernak in neutral zone
P2 09:07
Radek Faksa won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
P2 09:05
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Jake Oettinger
P2 08:55
SHOT
Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
P2 08:42
Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
P2 07:53
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jake Oettinger
P2 07:48
SHOT
Power play - Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P2 07:25
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Jake Oettinger
P2 06:16
Shorthanded - Oskar Back won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
P2 05:47
SHOT
Roope Hintz shot blocked by teammate
P2 05:35
Giveaway by Max Crozier in offensive zone
P2 05:17
SHOT
Miro Heiskanen shot blocked by Erik Cernak
P2 05:11
SHOT
Shot on goal by Esa Lindell saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P2 05:09
Stoppage - Icing
P2 04:56
Sam Steel won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
P2 04:51
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in neutral zone
P2 04:51
Stoppage - Offside
P2 04:42
Oliver Bjorkstrand won faceoff against Stars in offensive zone
P2 04:40
SHOT
Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
P2 03:37
Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Colin Blackwell in neutral zone
P2 03:08
Nick Paul won faceoff against Colin Blackwell in offensive zone
P2 03:08
Stoppage - Puck in Netting
P2 02:54
SHOT
Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by teammate
P2 02:06
SHOT
Matt Duchene shot blocked by Max Crozier
P2 01:48
Dominic James won faceoff against Roope Hintz in offensive zone
P2 01:46
SHOT
Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P2 01:19
Takeaway by Sam Steel in offensive zone
P2 00:56
Giveaway by Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
P2 00:00
Oskar Back won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
P1 20:00
End of 1st Period.
P1 19:18
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 18:57
SHOT
Shot on goal by Jason Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 18:47
SHOT
Thomas Harley shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
P1 18:28
Giveaway by J.J. Moser in offensive zone
P1 18:04
Wyatt Johnston won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in offensive zone
P1 18:04
Penalty to Justin Hryckowian 2 minutes for Roughing (Drawn by Declan Carlile)
P1 18:04
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 17:00
Giveaway by Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
P1 16:11
Colin Blackwell credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in offensive zone
P1 15:56
Colin Blackwell won faceoff against Nick Paul in defensive zone
P1 15:56
Stoppage - Icing
P1 15:49
Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
P1 15:27
Anthony Cirelli won faceoff against Mavrik Bourque in offensive zone
P1 14:52
SHOT
Shot missed by Jake Guentzel
P1 14:43
SHOT
Wyatt Johnston shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
P1 13:46
SHOT
Shot on goal by Roope Hintz saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 11:38
SHOT
Shot on goal by Erik Cernak saved by Jake Oettinger
P1 10:45
Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Wyatt Johnston in defensive zone
P1 10:26
Lightning won faceoff against Stars in neutral zone
P1 09:28
SHOT
Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jake Oettinger
P1 08:27
Mavrik Bourque won faceoff against Anthony Cirelli in defensive zone
P1 08:27
Stoppage - Icing
P1 08:04
GOAL
Goal scored by Dominic James
1-1
P1 07:53
SHOT
Colin Blackwell shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
P1 06:12
SHOT
Shorthanded - Shot on goal by Yanni Gourde saved by Jake Oettinger
P1 05:24
SHOT
Power play - Shot on goal by Mikko Rantanen saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P1 05:24
Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Hooking (Drawn by Radek Faksa)
P1 04:12
Roope Hintz credited with hit on Nick Paul in offensive zone
P1 04:00
Nick Paul won faceoff against Roope Hintz in neutral zone
P1 03:52
Takeaway by Oskar Back in offensive zone
P1 03:51
Mavrik Bourque credited with hit on Nikita Kucherov in offensive zone
P1 02:43
Sam Steel won faceoff against Jack Finley in offensive zone
P1 02:43
Stoppage - Icing
P1 02:05
Roope Hintz credited with hit on Charle-Edouard D'Astous in neutral zone
P1 01:35
Nick Paul won faceoff against Roope Hintz in neutral zone
P1 00:44
Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
P1 00:42
SHOT
Shot missed by Miro Heiskanen
Stats
Lightning
STATS
Stars
26Shots on Goal20
40% Faceoff Win % 60%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins6
21Hits16
14Shots Blocked14
17Giveaways13
LightningTB
StarsDAL
26Shots on Goal20
40% Faceoff Win % 60%
2/0 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 2/0
6Penalty Infraction Mins6
21Hits16
14Shots Blocked14
17Giveaways13

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Lightning vs. Stars: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Lightning vs. Stars
  • Date: Sunday, January 18, 2026
  • Time: 2:00 PM ET
  • Venue: American Airlines Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Lightning -115, Stars +100

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Lightning: 52%
  • Stars: 48%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 52%, while the Stars have a win probability of 48%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Stars in the NHL game at American Airlines Center on Sunday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Lightning vs. Stars predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.

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