Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano La Liga match on February 1, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Get Dimers Pro for full access.
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FINAL
LA LIGA
FINAL
ESP sport icon
LA LIGA
Rayo Vallecano
1
2
Real Madrid
Real MadridRMA
Score Summary
Rayo VallecanoRVC
Vinicius Junior (15')
Soccer ball icon
K. Mbappe (pen.) (90')
Soccer ball icon
J. de Frutos (49')
Soccer ball icon
P. Ciss (80')
Red Card icon
P. Chavarria (90')
Red Card icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Real Madrid
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Rayo Vallecano
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Yellow Card
    Pacha (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  2. 90'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by K. Mbappe (pen.)
    1-2
  3. 90'
    Red Card
    P. Chavarria (Rayo Vallecano) sent off for a second yellow card
  4. 84'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: C. Martin replaces I. Akhomach
  5. 83'
    Yellow Card
    A. Batalla (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  6. 83'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Luiz Felipe replaces I. Palazon
  7. 83'
    Yellow Card
    I. Akhomach (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  8. 83'
    Yellow Card
    Vinicius Junior (Real Madrid) cautioned
  9. 80'
    Red Card
    P. Ciss (Rayo Vallecano) sent off with a straight red card
  10. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Alaba replaces D. Huijsen
  11. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: Rodrygo replaces A. Guler
  12. 77'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: Pacha replaces A. Garcia
  13. 72'
    Yellow Card
    O. Valentin (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  14. 69'
    Yellow Card
    D. Ceballos (Real Madrid) cautioned
  15. 65'
    Yellow Card
    I. Palazon (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  16. 60'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: G. Garcia replaces F. Mastantuono
  17. 57'
    Yellow Card
    P. Chavarria (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  18. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: O. Valentin replaces G. Gumbau
  19. 56'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Rayo Vallecano: P. Diaz replaces J. de Frutos
  20. 53'
    Yellow Card
    G. Gumbau (Rayo Vallecano) cautioned
  21. 49'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Rayo Vallecano by J. de Frutos, assisted by A. Garcia
    1-1
  22. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: D. Ceballos replaces R. Asencio
  23. 15'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Real Madrid by Vinicius Junior, assisted by B. Diaz
    0-1
  24. 10'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Real Madrid: B. Diaz replaces J. Bellingham

Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano
  • Date: Sunday, February 1, 2026
  • Time: 8:00 AM ET

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Real Madrid -325, Rayo Vallecano +1050, draw +550

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Real Madrid: 74.8%
  • Rayo Vallecano: 10.1%
  • Draw: 15.1%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' La Liga data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano (10.4%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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Who will win Real Madrid vs. Rayo Vallecano? Prediction & correct score

Real Madrid is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 74.8%.

The most likely correct score is Real Madrid 2-0 Rayo Vallecano.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

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