Athletic Bilbao vs. Alaves prediction, odds, La Liga picks [9/19/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's La Liga match between Athletic Bilbao and Alaves, forming part of our La Liga predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model indicates a 54.9% chance of Athletic Bilbao winning, a 21.0% chance for Alaves, and a 24.1% chance of a draw. Additionally, the 2.5-goal over/under has a 51.1% chance of staying under., with a 50.3% chance of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best La Liga odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alaves +488, Athletic Bilbao -147
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-104/+100)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Alaves @ +488 via Polymarket
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +100 via Polymarket

According to our La Liga best bets, the top play to make on this game is Alaves to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

Here are the top three most likely final scores according to our model, with a 1-0 Athletic Bilbao win being the most probable:

• Athletic Bilbao 1-0 Alaves (12.2% probability)
• Athletic Bilbao 1-1 Alaves (11.5%)
• Athletic Bilbao 2-0 Alaves (10.3%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 49.7% chance of both Athletic Bilbao and Alaves finding the net and a 50.3% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's La Liga action between Athletic Bilbao and Alaves is scheduled to commence in the USA at 10:15 AM ET.

• Who: Athletic Bilbao vs. Alaves
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 10:15 AM ET/7:15AM PT

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Athletic Bilbao has a 54.9% win probability on Saturday, Alaves has a 21.0% win probability, and there is a 24.1% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary La Liga prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.