Manchester United vs. Manchester City Prediction, Picks and Odds

Dimers' prediction and analysis for the Manchester United vs. Manchester City Premier League match on January 17, 2026 includes win probabilities and picks for the biggest betting markets. Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro for full access.
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PREMIER LEAGUE
Manchester City
0
2
Old Trafford
Manchester United
Old Trafford
Manchester UnitedMNU
Score Summary
Manchester CityMNC
B. Mbeumo (65')
Soccer ball icon
P. Dorgu (76')
Soccer ball icon
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Manchester United
    100.0%
  • Draw
    0.0%
  • Manchester City
    0.0%
Win Probability
Match Timeline
  1. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester Utd: A. Heaven replaces L. Shaw
  2. 90'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester Utd: M. Mount replaces B. Fernandes
  3. 90'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
  4. 81'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester Utd: M. Ugarte replaces Casemiro
  5. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: T. Reijnders replaces B. Silva
  6. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: R. Ait Nouri replaces J. Doku
  7. 80'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: D. Mukasa replaces E. Haaland
  8. 76'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Manchester Utd by P. Dorgu, assisted by M. Cunha
    0-2
  9. 75'
    Yellow Card
    R. Lewis (Manchester City) cautioned
  10. 71'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester Utd: M. Cunha replaces B. Mbeumo
  11. 65'
    Soccer ball icon
    Goal scored for Manchester Utd by B. Mbeumo, assisted by B. Fernandes
    0-1
  12. 48'
    Yellow Card
    N. O'Reilly (Manchester City) cautioned
  13. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: N. O'Reilly replaces M. Alleyne
  14. 46'
    Substitution
    Substitution for Manchester City: R. Cherki replaces P. Foden
  15. 45'
    Yellow Card
    Rodri (Manchester City) cautioned
  16. 41'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
  17. 34'
    VAR: Goal Disallowed - offside
  18. 17'
    Yellow Card
    L. Shaw (Manchester Utd) cautioned
  19. 11'
    Yellow Card
    D. Dalot (Manchester Utd) cautioned

Manchester United vs. Manchester City: Match prediction & analysis

Match overview

  • Teams: Manchester United vs. Manchester City
  • Date: Saturday, January 17, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 AM ET
  • Venue: Old Trafford

Current betting odds

  • Moneyline: Manchester United +220, Manchester City +130, draw +270

Dimers' win & correct score probabilities

  • Manchester United: 28.1%
  • Manchester City: 49.6%
  • Draw: 22.2%

These probabilities are generated using Dimers' Premier League data model, which predicts the most likely outcomes for all major betting markets.

Most likely correct score: Manchester United 1-1 Manchester City (9.7%)

Correct score projections are based on expected scoring patterns. A team can have a higher chance of winning overall, even if the single most likely scoreline is a draw or narrow result.

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The Dimers betting model calculates probabilities for all match outcomes to identify where it sees the strongest value across the betting markets, ranking every opportunity by model edge.

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  • Moneyline probabilities
  • Total goals probabilities
  • Correct score probabilities

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Who will win Manchester United vs. Manchester City? Prediction & correct score

Manchester City is the most likely winner of this match with a win probability of 49.6%.

The most likely correct score is Manchester United 1-1 Manchester City.

But the most likely outcomes aren't always the best betting opportunities.

Start your free 3-day trial of Dimers Pro to unlock today's best bets and complete betting analysis for this matchup.

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