Arsenal vs. Leeds prediction, odds, Premier League picks [10/10/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's Premier League match between Arsenal and Leeds, forming part of our Premier League predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model indicates a 70.1% chance of Arsenal winning, a 10.8% chance for Leeds, and a 19.0% chance of a draw. Additionally, the over/under total of 2.5 goals has a 51.4% chance of going over., with a 57.6% likelihood of at least one team keeping a clean sheet.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best Premier League odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Leeds +809, Arsenal -245
• Total Goals: Over/Under 2.5 (-108/+108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Leeds @ +426 via Novig
• Total Goals: Under 2.5 @ +108 via Polymarket

According to our Premier League best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 2.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Correct score and BTTS projections

The top three most likely final scores, according to our model, are listed below, with a 2-0 Arsenal win being the most probable:

• Arsenal 2-0 Leeds (13.9% probability)
• Arsenal 1-0 Leeds (13.5%)
• Arsenal 3-0 Leeds (9.6%)

When it comes to the both teams to score (BTTS) market, we project a 42.4% chance of both sides finding the net and a 57.6% chance that at least one doesn’t.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's Premier League action between Arsenal and Leeds at Emirates Stadium is scheduled to begin in the USA at 7:30 AM ET.

• Who: Arsenal vs. Leeds
• Date: Saturday, October 10, 2026
• Time: 7:30 AM ET/4:30AM PT
• Venue: Emirates Stadium

Conclusion

According to our computer model, Arsenal has a 70.1% win probability on Saturday, Leeds has a 10.8% win probability, and there is a 19.0% chance that the game will end in a draw.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Premier League prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.