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Read Article Richmond Tigers vs. Carlton Blues prediction: Why Blues are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 17 matchup [7/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Richmond Tigers vs Carlton Blues predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Richmond Tigers will take on the favored Carlton Blues in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, commencing at 5:35 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Blues as the most likely winner of the Blues vs. Tigers game.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Tigers vs. Blues prediction: Who will win Round 17 game?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's AFL game between the Blues and Tigers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Blues an 83.3% chance of beating the Tigers.
According to our model, the Tigers (+32.5) have a 50.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 166.5 points has a 50.2% chance of staying under,.
Carlton vs. Richmond odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Blues | Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -1111 | +550 |
| Line (Spread) | -32.5 (-115) | +32.5 (-115) |
| Total | o166.5 (-115) | u166.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Blues vs. Tigers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tigers +32.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Tigers | +550 |
| Total | Under 166.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Tigers to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Tigers vs. Blues game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Tigers and Blues at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to commence at 5:35 AM ET.
- Who: Carlton Blues vs. Richmond Tigers
- Date: Saturday, July 4, 2026
- Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Blues, with an 83.3% win probability, will likely beat the Tigers in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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