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Read Article Geelong Cats vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Cats favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 17 matchup [7/2/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Geelong Cats vs Brisbane Lions predictions for AFL Thursday.
The Geelong Cats will face the Brisbane Lions in Australian Football League (AFL) action at GMHBA Stadium on Thursday, commencing at 5:30 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Cats as the most likely winner of the Lions vs. Cats game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cats vs. Lions prediction: Who will win Round 17 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Lions and Cats, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Cats a 69.9% chance of beating the Lions.
According to our model, the Cats (-12.5) have a 53.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 167.5 points has a 50.9% chance of staying under,.
Brisbane vs. Geelong odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lions | Cats |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +150 | -204 |
| Line (Spread) | +12.5 (-115) | -12.5 (-115) |
| Total | o167.5 (-120) | u167.5 (-120) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lions vs. Cats picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cats -12.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Cats | -204 |
| Total | Under 167.5 | -120 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cats to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Cats vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details
Thursday's Australian rules football game between the Cats and Lions at GMHBA Stadium is scheduled to commence at 5:30 AM ET.
- Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Geelong Cats
- Date: Thursday, July 2, 2026
- Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
- Venue: GMHBA Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Cats, with a 69.9% win probability, will likely beat the Lions in Thursday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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