North Carolina vs. Pennsylvania prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 14, 2026

North Carolina is favored to beat Pennsylvania at The Palestra on Saturday (4:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' women's basketball model.

Our North Carolina vs. Pennsylvania prediction gives the Tar Heels a 94.9% chance of winning, and the latest odds suggest there's betting value on North Carolina to cover at -16.5, too.

North Carolina vs. Pennsylvania key predictions

• Predicted score: North Carolina 73-52 Pennsylvania
• North Carolina win probability: 94.9%
• Pennsylvania win probability: 5.1%
• North Carolina -16.5 spread: 53.8% cover probability
• Under 130.5 points: 52.4% probability

Our women's basketball predictions start with projected final scores for both teams, based on each team's recent and long-term efficiency at both ends of the floor, adjusted for the matchup.

We pair those projections with historical scoring trends to calculate win, spread, and total probabilities, then compare them with current odds to find betting value.

North Carolina vs. Pennsylvania odds

Here are the best available prices across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.

• North Carolina moneyline: -1786 (DraftKings)
• Pennsylvania moneyline: +1000 (DraftKings)
• North Carolina -16.5: +100 (BetRivers)
• Pennsylvania +16.5: -132 (BetRivers)
• Over 130.5 points: -110 (DraftKings)
• Under 130.5 points: -110 (DraftKings)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

North Carolina vs. Pennsylvania pick: North Carolina -16.5 (+100)

Our model makes North Carolina the likelier winner, and our best value bet is the Tar Heels to cover the -16.5 spread at +100 on BetRivers, too.

Those odds give North Carolina an implied cover probability of 50.0%, while our model rates it at 53.8%.

That's a 3.8% edge, the biggest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets.

Get every North Carolina vs. Pennsylvania prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our North Carolina vs. Pennsylvania predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets
• Player prop edges for

North Carolina vs. Pennsylvania game details

• Matchup: North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Pennsylvania
• Date: Saturday, November 14, 2026
• Time: 4:00 PM ET
• Venue: The Palestra

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our women's basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.