Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Maple Leafs vs. Lightning NHL game on February 25, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
Get 6 months of Dimers Pro for just $99.99
FINAL
NHL
Add this game to My Favorites
FINAL
Add this game to My Favorites
NHL sport icon
NHL
Maple Leafs
2
4
Benchmark International Arena
Lightning
Benchmark International Arena
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 0 2 2
Lightning
0 2 2 4
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Maple Leafs
    0%
  • Lightning
    100%
Win Probability
TEAM123T
Maple Leafs
0 0 2 2
Lightning
0 2 2 4
P3 19:39 Shot missed by Bobby McMann
P3 18:55 Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:52 Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:52 Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 18:42 Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
P3 18:10 Shot missed by John Tavares
P3 16:30 Goal scored by Brayden Point assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Gage Goncalves
P3 15:28 Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 14:48 Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
P3 13:49 Shot missed by Scott Sabourin
P3 13:25 Shot missed by Victor Hedman
P3 13:01 Shot missed by John Tavares
P3 12:45 Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Jake McCabe
P3 12:28 Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 12:08 Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
P3 11:47 Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 10:11 Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 09:40 Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
P3 07:38 Shot missed by William Nylander
P3 06:57 Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
Play by Play
  1. P3 20:00
    End of 3rd Period.
  2. P3 19:39
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Bobby McMann
  3. P3 18:55
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Matias Maccelli saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  4. P3 18:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  5. P3 18:52
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Maple Leafs saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  6. P3 18:42
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  7. P3 18:22
    Takeaway by Oliver Ekman-Larsson in offensive zone
  8. P3 18:18
    John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  9. P3 18:18
    Stoppage - Icing
  10. P3 18:10
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  11. P3 17:13
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  12. P3 16:30
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Brayden Point assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Gage Goncalves
    1-4
  13. P3 16:19
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  14. P3 15:28
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Matthew Knies saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  15. P3 14:58
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  16. P3 14:54
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  17. P3 14:48
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
  18. P3 14:39
    John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  19. P3 14:39
    Stoppage - Icing
  20. P3 14:20
    John Tavares won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  21. P3 14:20
    Stoppage - Puck in Crowd - TV timeout
  22. P3 13:49
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Scott Sabourin
  23. P3 13:25
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  24. P3 13:22
    Pontus Holmberg won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  25. P3 13:02
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  26. P3 13:01
    SHOT
    Shot missed by John Tavares
  27. P3 12:45
    SHOT
    Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  28. P3 12:30
    John Tavares won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
  29. P3 12:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  30. P3 12:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Auston Matthews saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  31. P3 11:55
    Stoppage - Icing
  32. P3 11:49
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  33. P3 11:49
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  34. P3 11:47
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Victor Hedman saved by Anthony Stolarz
  35. P3 11:37
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  36. P3 11:37
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  37. P3 10:11
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Anthony Stolarz
  38. P3 09:43
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  39. P3 09:40
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
  40. P3 09:32
    Oliver Bjorkstrand won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in neutral zone
  41. P3 08:38
    Giveaway by Zemgus Girgensons in neutral zone
  42. P3 08:33
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  43. P3 07:38
    SHOT
    Shot missed by William Nylander
  44. P3 07:32
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  45. P3 07:32
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting - TV timeout
  46. P3 07:20
    Power play - Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  47. P3 07:20
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  48. P3 06:57
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nikita Kucherov
  49. P3 06:50
    Shorthanded - Simon Benoit credited with hit on Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  50. P3 05:54
    SHOT
    Power play - Brayden Point shot blocked by teammate
  51. P3 05:46
    Stoppage - Puck in Netting
  52. P3 05:24
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  53. P3 04:56
    Giveaway by John Tavares in offensive zone
  54. P3 04:21
    John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  55. P3 04:21
    Stoppage - Offside
  56. P3 03:52
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Pontus Holmberg
  57. P3 03:20
    Yanni Gourde won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  58. P3 03:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Calle Jarnkrok saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  59. P3 03:07
    SHOT
    Calle Jarnkrok shot blocked by Jake Guentzel
  60. P3 02:59
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in neutral zone
  61. P3 02:59
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Nikita Kucherov assisted by Gage Goncalves and Brayden Point
    0-3
  62. P3 01:23
    Giveaway by Darren Raddysh in defensive zone
  63. P3 01:01
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
  64. P3 00:57
    Matthew Knies credited with hit on J.J. Moser in defensive zone
  65. P3 00:25
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  66. P3 00:00
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  67. P2 20:00
    End of 2nd Period.
  68. P2 19:32
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Zemgus Girgensons saved by Anthony Stolarz
  69. P2 19:12
    John Tavares won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  70. P2 19:12
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  71. P2 19:11
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Carlo
  72. P2 18:51
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Anthony Stolarz
  73. P2 18:07
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Victor Hedman
  74. P2 18:03
    Maple Leafs won faceoff against Lightning in neutral zone
  75. P2 16:42
    Bobby McMann credited with hit on Darren Raddysh in offensive zone
  76. P2 16:37
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Auston Matthews in defensive zone
  77. P2 16:37
    Stoppage - Icing
  78. P2 16:05
    William Nylander won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  79. P2 16:05
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  80. P2 15:30
    SHOT
    Brandon Carlo shot blocked by Brandon Hagel
  81. P2 15:20
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Dominic James in offensive zone
  82. P2 15:14
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nicholas Robertson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  83. P2 14:41
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Scott Laughton saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  84. P2 14:04
    Pontus Holmberg credited with hit on Oliver Ekman-Larsson in neutral zone
  85. P2 13:33
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Zemgus Girgensons
  86. P2 13:32
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  87. P2 13:32
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG) - TV timeout
  88. P2 13:30
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  89. P2 13:07
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  90. P2 12:34
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Nikita Kucherov
  91. P2 12:03
    Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in offensive zone
  92. P2 11:50
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by William Nylander saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  93. P2 11:39
    SHOT
    Jake Guentzel shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  94. P2 10:40
    SHOT
    Erik Cernak shot blocked by Auston Matthews
  95. P2 10:20
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Charle-Edouard D'Astous
  96. P2 09:45
    Shorthanded - Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
  97. P2 09:43
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Anthony Stolarz
  98. P2 09:26
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Anthony Stolarz
  99. P2 08:40
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Anthony Stolarz
  100. P2 08:34
    Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brayden Point in defensive zone
  101. P2 08:26
    SHOT
    Power play - Darren Raddysh shot blocked by Steven Lorentz
  102. P2 07:58
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Scott Laughton in neutral zone
  103. P2 07:58
    GOAL
    Goal scored by Gage Goncalves assisted by Nikita Kucherov and Charle-Edouard D'Astous
    0-2
  104. P2 07:57
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Gage Goncalves
  105. P2 07:16
    Stoppage - Icing
  106. P2 07:07
    Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  107. P2 06:25
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  108. P2 06:25
    Stoppage - Icing
  109. P2 05:39
    Stoppage - Icing
  110. P2 05:28
    Nicolas Roy won faceoff against Pontus Holmberg in defensive zone
  111. P2 05:15
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Jake Guentzel saved by Anthony Stolarz
  112. P2 04:33
    Darren Raddysh credited with hit on Calle Jarnkrok in defensive zone
  113. P2 04:03
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Nikita Kucherov saved by Anthony Stolarz
  114. P2 02:52
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  115. P2 02:39
    Power play - Giveaway by Matias Maccelli in offensive zone
  116. P2 02:10
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Bobby McMann saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  117. P2 02:06
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Nicholas Robertson
  118. P2 01:23
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Morgan Rielly
  119. P2 00:48
    Power play - John Tavares won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in offensive zone
  120. P2 00:48
    Penalty to Erik Cernak 2 minutes for Interference
  121. P2 00:08
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Morgan Rielly saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  122. P1 20:00
    End of 1st Period.
  123. P1 18:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brandon Hagel
  124. P1 18:13
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Jake Guentzel in defensive zone
  125. P1 18:11
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot missed by Emil Lilleberg
  126. P1 17:36
    SHOT
    J.J. Moser shot blocked by Jake McCabe
  127. P1 17:19
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Zemgus Girgensons
  128. P1 16:43
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  129. P1 16:36
    SHOT
    Oliver Ekman-Larsson shot blocked by Scott Sabourin
  130. P1 15:41
    SHOT
    Steven Lorentz shot blocked by Darren Raddysh
  131. P1 15:20
    Stoppage - Chlg Vis - off-side
  132. P1 15:20
    GOAL
    Power play - Goal scored by Brayden Point assisted by Jake Guentzel and Nikita Kucherov
    0-1
  133. P1 15:07
    Shorthanded - Scott Laughton won faceoff against Brayden Point in offensive zone
  134. P1 14:46
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Darren Raddysh saved by Anthony Stolarz
  135. P1 14:18
    SHOT
    Power play - Shot on goal by Oliver Bjorkstrand saved by Anthony Stolarz
  136. P1 14:06
    Power play - Brayden Point won faceoff against Scott Laughton in offensive zone
  137. P1 14:06
    Penalty to Simon Benoit 2 minutes for Misconduct
  138. P1 13:38
    Zemgus Girgensons won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in defensive zone
  139. P1 13:38
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  140. P1 13:36
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Oliver Ekman-Larsson saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  141. P1 13:34
    Stoppage - Icing
  142. P1 13:04
    SHOT
    Morgan Rielly shot blocked by Ryan McDonagh
  143. P1 12:18
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous credited with hit on Calle Jarnkrok in defensive zone
  144. P1 11:48
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  145. P1 11:46
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Steven Lorentz in offensive zone
  146. P1 11:46
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  147. P1 11:43
    Simon Benoit credited with hit on Victor Hedman in defensive zone
  148. P1 10:27
    SHOT
    Gage Goncalves shot blocked by John Tavares
  149. P1 10:09
    William Nylander won faceoff against Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  150. P1 10:07
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by John Tavares saved by Andrei Vasilevskiy
  151. P1 09:30
    SHOT
    Charle-Edouard D'Astous shot blocked by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  152. P1 08:29
    Zemgus Girgensons credited with hit on Brandon Carlo in neutral zone
  153. P1 08:24
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in neutral zone
  154. P1 08:24
    Stoppage - Offside
  155. P1 07:03
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Darren Raddysh
  156. P1 06:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Ekman-Larsson
  157. P1 06:33
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Oliver Bjorkstrand
  158. P1 06:22
    Brayden Point won faceoff against John Tavares in neutral zone
  159. P1 05:11
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in offensive zone
  160. P1 04:41
    SHOT
    Brayden Point shot blocked by Brandon Carlo
  161. P1 04:21
    Brayden Point won faceoff against Nicolas Roy in offensive zone
  162. P1 04:21
    Stoppage - Icing
  163. P1 03:55
    Maple Leafs challenge (), call reversed
  164. P1 03:55
    Stoppage - Chlg Vis - off-side
  165. P1 03:28
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brayden Point saved by Anthony Stolarz
  166. P1 03:12
    SHOT
    Shot missed by J.J. Moser
  167. P1 02:26
    Auston Matthews won faceoff against Yanni Gourde in defensive zone
  168. P1 02:26
    Stoppage - Goalie Stopped (after SOG)
  169. P1 02:23
    SHOT
    Shot on goal by Brandon Hagel saved by Anthony Stolarz
  170. P1 01:53
    Nicholas Robertson credited with hit on Brandon Hagel in defensive zone
  171. P1 01:53
    Stoppage - Offside
  172. P1 00:51
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Brayden Point
  173. P1 00:32
    Giveaway by Zemgus Girgensons in offensive zone
  174. P1 00:22
    SHOT
    Shot missed by Yanni Gourde
  175. P1 00:18
    Giveaway by Max Domi in neutral zone
Stats
Maple Leafs
STATS
Lightning
34Shots on Goal36
55% Faceoff Win % 45%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins4
18Hits17
17 Shots Blocked 11
15Giveaways9
Maple LeafsTOR
LightningTB
34Shots on Goal36
55% Faceoff Win % 45%
2/1 PP Opportunities/PP Goals 4/0
8Penalty Infraction Mins4
18Hits17
17 Shots Blocked 11
15Giveaways9

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning
  • Date: Wednesday, February 25, 2026
  • Time: 7:30 PM ET
  • Venue: Benchmark International Arena

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Lightning favored at -1.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 6
  • Moneyline Odds: Maple Leafs +185, Lightning -220

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Maple Leafs: 36%
  • Lightning: 64%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Maple Leafs a win probability of 36%, while the Lightning have a win probability of 64%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Lightning are more likely to beat the Maple Leafs in the NHL game at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Maple Leafs vs. Lightning predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.

For further insights, explore our expert NHL predictions and the best NHL bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NHL props, NHL futures, NHL odds, and the latest NHL news.