Wild vs. Maple Leafs prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 12, 2026

The Minnesota Wild are favored to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena on Thursday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Wild vs. Maple Leafs prediction gives Minnesota a 60.0% chance of winning, but the latest odds suggest there's betting value on Maple Leafs as the underdog.

Wild vs. Maple Leafs key predictions

• Wild win probability: 60.0%
• Maple Leafs win probability: 40.0%
• Maple Leafs +1.5 puck line: 61.9% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 52.9% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Wild vs. Maple Leafs odds

Below are the best available prices across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets. Novig has the best price in every market for this game.

• Wild moneyline: 62¢ (Novig)
• Maple Leafs moneyline: 39¢ (Novig)
• Wild -1.5: 40¢ (Novig)
• Maple Leafs +1.5: 61¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 48¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 53¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Wild vs. Maple Leafs pick: Maple Leafs ML (39¢)

Our model makes the Wild the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the Maple Leafs moneyline at 39¢ on Novig.

Those odds give Maple Leafs an implied win probability of 38.5%, while our model rates it at 40.0%.

That's a 1.5% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.

Wild vs. Maple Leafs goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each game 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Kirill Kaprizov of the Wild leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Thursday's game at 47.3%, ahead of teammate Matt Boldy (39.8%). Toronto's most likely goal-scorer, William Nylander, is further back at 36.3%. Kaprizov also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 10.0%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Kirill Kaprizov (Wild): 47.3%
2. Matt Boldy (Wild): 39.8%
3. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 36.3%
4. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 35.8%
5. John Tavares (Maple Leafs): 29.0%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Kirill Kaprizov (Wild): 10.0%
2. Matt Boldy (Wild): 7.8%
3. William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 7.1%
4. Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 6.9%
5. Jack Roslovic (Maple Leafs): 5.6%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Wild vs. Maple Leafs prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Wild vs. Maple Leafs predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Wild vs. Maple Leafs game details

• Matchup: Minnesota Wild vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Thursday, November 12, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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