Avalanche vs. Senators prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 12, 2026

The Colorado Avalanche are favored to beat the Ottawa Senators at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday (7:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' NHL model.

Our Avalanche vs. Senators prediction gives Colorado a 50.8% chance of winning, and the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the Avalanche moneyline, too.

Avalanche vs. Senators key predictions

• Avalanche win probability: 50.8%
• Senators win probability: 49.2%
• Avalanche +1.5 puck line: 70.8% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 54.5% probability

Our NHL predictions estimate how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent performance, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

We then calculate the probability of each team winning and covering the puck line, plus the chance the game goes over or under the total, and compare those probabilities with the latest odds to find betting value.

Avalanche vs. Senators odds

These are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.

• Avalanche moneyline: 48¢ (Novig)
• Senators moneyline: -110 (BetRivers)
• Avalanche +1.5: 70¢ (Novig)
• Senators -1.5: 31¢ (Novig)
• Over 6.5 goals: 48¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 53¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Avalanche vs. Senators pick: Avalanche ML (48¢)

Our model makes the Avalanche the more likely winner, and our best value bet is the Avalanche moneyline at 48¢ on Novig, too.

Those odds give Avalanche an implied win probability of 48.5%, while our model rates it at 50.8%.

That's a 2.3% edge, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets for this matchup.

Avalanche vs. Senators goal-scorer predictions

Our NHL player props model simulates each game 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, opponent strength, and projected team goals.

Nathan MacKinnon of the Avalanche leads the anytime goal-scorer projections for Thursday's game at 37.6%, followed by Ottawa's Tim Stutzle (34.6%). MacKinnon also leads the first goal-scorer projections at 7.4%.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

1. Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche): 37.6%
2. Tim Stutzle (Senators): 34.6%
3. Drake Batherson (Senators): 32.6%
4. Martin Necas (Avalanche): 32.3%
5. Artturi Lehkonen (Avalanche): 30.3%

First goal-scorer predictions

1. Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche): 7.4%
2. Tim Stutzle (Senators): 7.1%
3. Drake Batherson (Senators): 6.1%
4. Martin Necas (Avalanche): 5.6%
5. Artturi Lehkonen (Avalanche): 5.3%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare probabilities with available odds to assess potential value.

Get every Avalanche vs. Senators prediction with Dimers Pro

Dimers Pro members get full access to our Avalanche vs. Senators predictions, including:

• Best bets across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams
• Player prop edges for anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets

Avalanche vs. Senators game details

• Matchup: Colorado Avalanche vs. Ottawa Senators
• Date: Thursday, November 12, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET
• Venue: Canadian Tire Centre

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our NHL models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or starting goaltender confirmations. Learn how our predictions work.

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