NFL Week 3 betting recap: Where the Dimers model dominated and why it pays to follow

Week 3 of NFL betting is in the books, which means it's time to take a look at where the Dimers model was most dialed in this weekend.

The storyline of the week was the QB injuries from Week 2 that led to three more backups starting in Week 3, all of them guiding their team to a win.

If you were leaning on our NFL predictions from the Dimers model, you'd have caught several of these outcomes coming from a mile away, all sourced from our exclusive Dimers Pro insights.

Dimers Pro remains the top betting resource in your pocket this NFL season, and when paired with the Dimers App, you'll keep finding these kinds of edges week in and week out.

Let's see where the Dimers model was most dialed in from this weekend's slate.

Backups sweep the slate and Dimers had the edges

Case Keenum (Bears), Jameis Winston (Giants) and Marcus Mariota (Commanders) all stepped in to lead their teams to victory in Week 3.

The Giants were short 2.5-point favorites over the Titans, but we gave them over a 60% probability to cover. The Commanders and Bears each carried a slim edge at their best odds to win outright, with our model favoring Washington on the 8.5-point spread and a 50/50 toss-up in Eagles-Bears.

A lot of noise around the backup QBs in Week 3.

The Dimers model doesn't care about noise. 👀

From Washington winning outright to the slimmest of edges on the Bears (only at the right spot), the data never doubted the backups.

That's Dimers Pro in action. pic.twitter.com/ynb7F2vIzG

— Dimers (@dimerscom) September 29, 2026

What do those three QBs have in common? Experience.

They may be backups, but they've all stepped in and delivered at various points in their respective careers, and the Dimers model simply didn't downgrade their teams nearly as much as the books and the public.

Fans and bettors were surprised by these results. Dimers Pros saw them coming.

Dimers' spreads stay positive again

A 9-7 result for our model's closing line pick on each game spread.

That makes three positive weeks in a row for a strong outing from tour new NFL predictions model to start the season.

How do we determine our model's pick on the spread?

We check each game's prediction, and wherever our model favors a side above 50% against the spread, or finds value on a team at the closing number, that's our pick. In games where the Dimers model predicted a 50/50 split, we check our predicted final score for the tiebreaker, as it will always land on one side of the spread.

Notable model picks that cashed this week included the Jaguars, Colts and Bills, all covering behind Dimers' numbers.

Touchdown picks go 4-1 from the Top 5

Back-to-back weeks have seen four of our top five players find the end zone, with this week's hits on Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry and Kenneth Walker, three of them scoring multiple touchdowns.

Over the first three weeks of the season, Dimers' top 5 Sunday TD scorers have a 13-2 record of finding the end zone.

Dimers' biggest wins

It's rarely a chalk week betting on the NFL, and Week 3 was no different, with these performances backing up the numbers we had on the board via our best NFL bets and best NFL player props.

Bills -7.5

One of our top bets of the whole week, where our data said that the Bills' soft defense so far was not a concern against a Chargers team that has struggled to even move the ball.

Our best value on the Bills to cover the spread vs. the Chargers.

It took the whole game to cover, but the Bills overcame their mistakes en route to an 8-point win, while the Chargers are left scrambling for answers after another bad game.

Brock Bowers dominates in season debut

One of the most exciting stories of Week 3 was the season debut of Brock Bowers after missing the first two games while recovering from late offseason surgery.

Bowers immediately projected as our top performer in the game, smashing our expectations and turning in a 19-catch, 116-yard, 1 TD performance

Davante Adams 

With Puka Nacua out again, we called out Davante Adams as an instant Top 5 WR candidate with a week-leading ceiling.

While he didn't find the end zone for the first time in 3 games without Nacua, he turned in 137 receiving yards on 7 catches.

What the Dimers model said about these standout performances

Some of the biggest player and team performances of the week - here's what our model predicted around those outcomes and where you might have found an edge in our NFL player projections:

JSN shines again

The reigning Offensive Player of the Year leads the league in receptions (27), receiving yards (128) and touchdowns (6) through three weeks.

He turned in 128 yards and a pair of touchdowns in Week 3, and in our NFL player projections, JSN was our top-projected receiver at 93.8 yards(the only one over 90), the most likely WR to score (one of just two over 50%), and the only WR in our top 10 highest multi-touchdown probabilities.

Jahmyr Gibbs' three-TD performance

The No. 1 player most likely to score in all of Week 3 was Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs, and he turned in a pair of rushing scores and one receiving touchdown.

In our NFL Player Projections, no other player had a higher chance of scoring 3 touchdowns.

Jahmyr Gibbs led the way in our Week 3 TD projections.

Where we missed in Week 3

We narrowly missed cashing back-to-back same game parlays on primetime games, needing a Davante Adams touchdown on SNF. Despite his 137-yard game and 13 targets, he was unable to find the end zone.

Two of the best bets from our weekly NFL Preview video came up short as well, with the Over failing to hit in Colts vs. Texans (though we also identified some underdog value on the Colts), and the Rams losing late in the game to kill the -2.5 spread.

Not every prediction will be a winner, but if you trust the data long-term and rely on statistical decisions, you're more likely to find success over time.

Dimers' 2026-27 NFL betting resources for Week 4

• NFL Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every game, every day
• NFL Best Bets: Our top picks for every individual matchup
• Best NFL Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
• NFL Futures Odds: Who will win the Super Bowl?
• NFL Betting News: The latest promos, storylines and more around the league