Falcons vs. Packers prediction favors Green Bay to win ‘TNF’ Week 3 [2026]

The Green Bay Packers will take on the Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 3 action at Lambeau Field on Thursday, starting at 8:15 PM ET.

Dimers' proven NFL model projects the Packers as the most likely winner in this Falcons vs. Packers prediction.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including projected touchdown scorers, best bets and player prop picks.

Falcons vs. Packers prediction and odds

Since our Falcons-Packers predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Thursday's NFL matchup between the Falcons and Packers, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Packers a 66.3% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 3 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Packers winning 23-18.

Key factors favoring the Packers:

• Green Bay Packers Power Rankings
• Green Bay Packers Offensive Efficiency
• Green Bay Packers Home Ground Advantage

According to our model, the oddsmakers have got it right, and the Falcons and Packers each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 42.5 points has a 51.0% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Atlanta Falcons Form
• Weather / Conditions

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 3 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Falcons +4.5 (+104) / Packers -4.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Falcons +213, Packers -217
• Total: Over/Under 42.5 (-108/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Falcons +4.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Falcons @ 32¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 42.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 42.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Falcons vs. Packers TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Falcons vs. Packers?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for TNF, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Falcons vs. Packers.

Our projections give Robinson a 51.7% chance of scoring a TD at Lambeau Field, while the running back is a 14.8% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 51.7% probability
• Drake London (WR): 32.1%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 21.9%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 17.2%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 12.0%

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson (WR): 42.8% prob.
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 32.4%
• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 31.4%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 28.3%
• Kaleb Johnson (RB): 24.5%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 14.8% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 7.9%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 5.0%
• Brian Robinson (RB): 3.8%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 2.6%

Green Bay Packers

• Christian Watson (WR): 10.8% prob.
• Tucker Kraft (TE): 7.6%
• MarShawn Lloyd (RB): 7.3%
• Matthew Golden (WR): 6.4%
• Kaleb Johnson (RB): 5.4%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Falcons and Packers. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 3 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Falcons' Michael Penix is projected for 212 passing yards, while the Packers' Jordan Love is expected to throw for 237 yards.

Falcons rushing

• Bijan Robinson: 81 yds
• Brian Robinson: 26 yds
• Michael Penix: 9 yds

Packers rushing

• Kaleb Johnson: 36 yds
• MarShawn Lloyd: 31 yds
• Chris Brooks: 21 yds

Falcons receiving

• Drake London: 71 yds
• Kyle Pitts: 39 yds
• Bijan Robinson: 37 yds
• Jahan Dotson: 24 yds
• Olamide Zaccheaus: 16 yds

Packers receiving

• Christian Watson: 74 yds
• Matthew Golden: 60 yds
• Tucker Kraft: 47 yds
• Skyy Moore: 19 yds
• Jonnu Smith: 14 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 3 action between the Packers and Falcons at Lambeau Field is scheduled to commence at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers
• Date: Thursday, September 24, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: Lambeau Field

NFL Week 3 promo

Using our full NFL Week 3 promo code guide, you can make the most of Dimers' Falcons vs. Packers predictions with the below DraftKings Sportsbook offer:

Plus, check out the latest details on the current offer from Kalshi.

Conclusion

We predict the Packers, with a 66.3% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.