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Super Bowl LX: Using data science to predict the MVP in 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
Advanced Super Bowl LX simulations pinpoint three elite offensive weapons with the best chance to upset the quarterback-dominated MVP race.
Super Bowl LX is set for Levi's Stadium on February 8, 2026, featuring a clash between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots. While the betting markets and casual fans are fixated on the quarterbacks—Sam Darnold and Drake Maye—history suggests that Super Bowl MVP honors don't always go to the signal-caller.
In fact, some of the most memorable Super Bowl performances have come from 'dark horse' candidates who stole the spotlight. From Malcolm Smith (Super Bowl XLVIII) shocking the world as a Seahawks linebacker to Von Miller (Super Bowl 50) single-handedly wrecking a game plan, and Julian Edelman (Super Bowl LIII) grinding out a win for New England, the path to the Pete Rozelle Trophy isn't always through the passing game.
Based on our Super Bowl 2026 NFL player projections, here are three "outside of the box" candidates who could shatter the quarterback monopoly in SBLX.
Super Bowl LX MVP Predictions
Our advanced data science and statistical simulations for Super Bowl LX have pinpointed three elite offensive weapons who offer the highest probability of upsetting the quarterback-dominated Super Bowl MVP race:
- a dynamic running back with a staggering 53% likelihood of scoring who could break a nearly 30-year positional drought
- a high-traffic receiver projected for nearly 96 yards and the highest point total of any non-QB
- a red-zone specialist whose goal-line usage creates a massive ceiling in tight defensive matchups.
While the public narrative often defaults to the signal-caller, the SBLX numbers suggest these three players possess the raw statistical output required to capture the spotlight—and the trophy—in Super Bowl 2026.
Kenneth Walker III (RB, Seahawks)
It has been nearly three decades since a running back was named Super Bowl MVP. In an era dominated by passing, a running back winning the award is the definition of "outside the box."
Kenneth Walker III Super Bowl MVP odds:
The best available odds for Kenneth Walker to be awarded the Super Bowl LX MVP in 2026 are +850 at Bet365 Sportsbook.
The data: Kenneth Walker III is projected to be the engine of the Seahawks' offense.
- Projected yards: 104 (80 Rushing + 24 Receiving)
- TD probability: 53.83% chance of scoring at least 1 TD
- Volume: Walker is expected to move the chains consistently
The narrative: If the Seahawks control the clock to keep the ball out of Drake Maye’s hands, Walker will be the beneficiary. A 100+ yard, 2-touchdown performance would make him the first RB to win the award in 28 years, cementing his legacy in Super Bowl LX lore.
The precedent: Terrell Davis of the Denver Broncos, who earned the honor in Super Bowl XXXII (played January 25, 1998), rushing for 157 yards and scoring three touchdowns in the Broncos’ 31–24 victory over the Green Bay Packers.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR, Seahawks)
Wide receivers have won the MVP award recently (Cooper Kupp, Julian Edelman), but they usually need a historic stat line to overshadow their QB. Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) is projected to have exactly that kind of volume.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Super Bowl MVP odds:
The best available odds for JSN to be awarded the Super Bowl LX MVP in 2026 are +550 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
The data: JSN’s projections in the SBLX data are staggering when using a PPR format:
- Projected points: 21.29 (Highest among all non-QBs)
- Receiving yards: 95.88 yards
- TD Potential: 46.16% chance of scoring
The narrative: This feels like a Cooper Kupp (LVI, 2022) or Julian Edelman (LIII, 2019) stat line waiting to happen. If Darnold plays a "game manager" role—distributing the ball quickly to his playmakers—Smith-Njigba could rack up 10+ catches and 100+ yards. If those yards come on critical 3rd downs, he becomes the narrative favorite for Super Bowl MVP.
The precedents: Edelman earned the honor for catching 10 passes for 141 yards in the Patriots’ 13–3 victory over the Los Angeles Rams, and Kupp, then of the Rams, earned the honor when recording 8 receptions for 92 yards and scoring two touchdowns in the Rams’ 23–20 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals.
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, Patriots)
While Drake Maye is the flashy QB, the Patriots' path to a Super Bowl 2026 victory likely involves a defensive struggle and a ground-and-pound offense—the "Patriot Way."
Rhamondre Stevenson Super Bowl MVP odds:
The best available odds for Rhamondre Stevenson to be awarded the Super Bowl LX MVP in 2026 are +3000 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Data:
- Projected workload: 15 carries (based on recent usage trends)
- Scoring upside: Stevenson has been the Patriots' closer in the playoffs, with a knack for goal-line touches
- Game script: If New England wins a low-scoring affair (e.g., 17-14), a QB with <200 yards rarely wins MVP. A running back who grinds out 80 yards and the game-winning score becomes the obvious choice.
The narrative: Think of this as the "Sony Michel role" from the Patriots' last Super Bowl run, but with MVP upside. If the Seahawks' defense takes away the deep ball, Stevenson becomes the safety valve and the clock-killer. In a defensive slugfest at Levi's Stadium, the player who physically wears down the opponent often takes home the trophy.
The precedent: As mentioned, the last running back to win Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis, whose 157-yard, three-touchdown performance in Super Bowl XXXII remains the most recent time the award has gone to the RB position.
The 'Von Miller' factor: The Defensive wildcard
Finally, we cannot ignore the lesson of Super Bowl 50, and Von Miller remains the gold standard for the "Defense wins Championships" narrative.
In 2016, Miller single-handedly wrecked the Panthers’ offense (2.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), proving that a defensive player doesn't need to score points to be the Most Valuable Player—they just need to prevent them.
The narrative: For a defensive player from Seattle or New England to win the Super Bowl LX MVP, they need to replicate the "Von Miller Stat Line":
- Multiple sacks: Disruption is key
- Turnovers: A strip-sack that leads to a score is worth more than 100 yards of offense
- The "game-wrecker" moment: Just as Miller stole the ball from Cam Newton, a Seahawks edge rusher or Patriots linebacker needs one signature play that helps seals the Lombardi Trophy
If this game turns into a defensive clinic, don't be surprised if voters look for the player channeling their inner Von Miller.
Super Bowl LX betting resources [2026]
- Patriots vs. Seahawks Super Bowl LX Predictions: Our data-backed preview of Super Bowl LX
- Super Bowl LX Hub: Everything you need to know ahead of the big game.
- NFL Player Projections Hub: Projected boxscores and TD probabilities for every player
- Five facts you need to know before betting on Super Bowl LX: Get the lowdown now!
- Super Bowl Trends: Fade or follow these historical results?
- Super Bowl Halftime Show Bets and Odds: Bad Bunny takes the stage at Super Bowl LX
- King of the End Zone - Super Bowl special: Touchdown predictions for DraftKings' $4M jackpot
- The Dimers Sports Betting Podcast - Super Bowl edition: Watch every episode featuring our two weeks of Super Bowl LX coverage
To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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