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Suns vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Game 1 [2026 NBA Playoffs]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Phoenix Suns vs Oklahoma City Thunder predictions for NBA Playoffs Sunday.
The Oklahoma City Thunder will face the Phoenix Suns in Game 1of their 2026 NBA Playoffs series at Paycom Center on Sunday, starting at 3:30 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Suns vs. Thunder Game 1 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature stars like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Suns will look to Devin Booker, Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Suns vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win Game 1?
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Sunday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Suns and Thunder, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model gives the Thunder an 86% chance of beating the Suns in Game 1 of the series. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 114-101.
According to our model, the Suns (+13.5) have a 57% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 215.5 points has a 51% chance of going over.
Suns vs. Thunder Game 1 odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Suns | Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +13.5 (-104) | -13.5 (-119) |
| Moneyline | +750 | -1000 |
| Total | o215.5 (-105) | u215.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Suns vs. Thunder picks and best bet for Game 1
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Suns +13.5 | -104 |
| Moneyline | Suns | +750 |
| Total | Over 215.5 | -105 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Suns +13.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Suns vs. Thunder Game 1 player props
Looking for Suns vs. Thunder NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.
Devin Booker is expected to lead the Suns with 26 points, 4 rebounds and 7 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 30 points, 5 rebounds and 6 assists for the Thunder.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Suns prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Suns are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devin Booker | 26 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 46 |
| Jalen Green | 20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 37 |
| Dillon Brooks | 17 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 29 |
| Grayson Allen | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
| Jordan Goodwin | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 26 |
Thunder prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 51 |
| Jalen Williams | 18 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 36 |
| Chet Holmgren | 16 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 36 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 22 |
| I. Hartenstein | 8 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 27 |
Suns vs. Thunder Game 1 updates and essential details
Sunday's Game 1 between the Thunder and Suns in the NBA Playoffs is scheduled to commence at 3:30 PM ET.
- Who: Phoenix Suns vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
- Date: Sunday, April 19, 2026
- Time: 3:30 PM ET/12:30PM PT
- Venue: Paycom Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The NBA Playoffs is an annual postseason tournament held to determine the league's champion.
A total of 16 teams, including the Suns and Thunder, reached the 2026 NBA Playoffs, which consists of four rounds: the First Round, Conference Semifinals, Conference Finals, and NBA Finals.
Each round of the NBA Playoffs is contested as a best-of-seven series, with the first team to four wins moving on to the next round until a champion is crowned.
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with an 86% win probability, will likely beat the Suns in Sunday's NBA playoffs matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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