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Thunder vs. Spurs prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Tuesday's NBA game [12/23/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs predictions for NBA Tuesday.
The San Antonio Spurs will face the favored Oklahoma City Thunder in NBA action at Frost Bank Center on Tuesday, commencing at 8:30 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Spurs game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Spurs lineup will feature players like De'Aaron Fox, Victor Wembanyama and Stephon Castle, while the Thunder will be led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Spurs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Tuesday's NBA game between the Thunder and Spurs 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Thunder a 69% chance of beating the Spurs. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 119-113.
According to our model, the Thunder (-5.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 234.5 points has a 53% chance of staying under.
Thunder vs. Spurs odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -5.5 (-105) | +5.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -220 | +190 |
| Total | o234.5 (-105) | u234.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Spurs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Thunder -5.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Thunder | -220 |
| Total | Under 234.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Thunder to win.
Thunder vs. Spurs player props
Looking for Oklahoma City vs. San Antonio NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Frost Bank Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 30 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists, while De'Aaron Fox is projected to have 19 points, 4 rebounds and 5 assists for the Spurs.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 52 |
| Jalen Williams | 20 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 40 |
| Chet Holmgren | 17 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 34 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 12 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
| I. Hartenstein | 9 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 29 |
Spurs prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Spurs:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox | 19 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 38 |
| V. Wembanyama | 18 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 41 |
| Stephon Castle | 17 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 38 |
| Devin Vassell | 14 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 28 |
| Harrison Barnes | 11 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 21 |
Thunder vs. Spurs game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's game between the Spurs and Thunder at Frost Bank Center is scheduled to commence at 8:30 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2025
- Time: 8:30 PM ET/5:30PM PT
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
Conclusion
We predict the Thunder, with a 69% win probability, will likely beat the Spurs on Tuesday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Thunder vs. Spurs insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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