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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/23.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, December 23, 2025—are live with the Trail Blazers' Shaedon Sharpe projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Sharpe, Donovan Mitchell and Kawhi Leonard lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 23, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 16.4% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 16.4% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 15.4% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 15.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.1% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.7% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 14.3% |
| Desmond Bane | Magic | 14.1% |
| Joel Embiid | 76ers | 13.9% |
| Tyrese Maxey | 76ers | 13.8% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 13.7% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 13.5% |
| Anthony Davis | Mavericks | 13.4% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 13.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 23, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 4.7% | +750 | 16.5% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 3.1% | +900 | 13.1% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 2.0% | +850 | 12.5% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 1.4% | +750 | 13.1% |
| Cade Cunningham | Pistons | 0.7% | +750 | 12.4% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 0.4% | +600 | 14.7% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.2% | +750 | 12.0% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.1% | +650 | 13.5% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 0.0% | +600 | 14.3% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, December 23, 2025, Shaedon Sharpe, Donovan Mitchell and Kawhi Leonard lead our first basket projections, with Sharpe shaping as the strongest value play at +750. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
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Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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