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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, December 23, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/23.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, December 23, 2025—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections make use of detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Kawhi Leonard and Alex Sarr lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also spotlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 23, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 16.4% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 15.8% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 15.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.1% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 14.7% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.4% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 14.3% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 14.3% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 13.9% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 13.5% |
| De'Aaron Fox | Spurs | 13.3% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.1% |
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 13.1% |
| CJ McCollum | Wizards | 13.0% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 12.9% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 23, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Portis | Bucks | 2.6% | +850 | 13.1% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 2.0% | +850 | 12.5% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 1.8% | +700 | 14.3% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 1.4% | +750 | 13.1% |
| Alperen Sengun | Rockets | 1.0% | +650 | 14.3% |
| Jalen Duren | Pistons | 0.9% | +800 | 12.0% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.1% | +650 | 13.5% |
| Maxime Raynaud | Kings | 0.1% | +750 | 11.9% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/23.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Tuesday, December 23, 2025, Donovan Mitchell, Kawhi Leonard and Alex Sarr lead our first basket projections, while Bobby Portis shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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