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Read Article Thunder vs. Spurs prediction: San Antonio favored to win Game 4 of WCF 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Oklahoma City Thunder vs San Antonio Spurs predictions for NBA Playoffs Sunday.
The San Antonio Spurs and Oklahoma City Thunder will lock horns in Game 3 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals at Frost Bank Center on Sunday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury reports, Dimers' advanced NBA model projects the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 matchup.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Spurs lineup will feature stars like Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox, while the Thunder will rely on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Thunder vs. Spurs prediction: Who will win Game 4?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Sunday's NBA Playoffs matchup between the Thunder and Spurs, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model currently gives the Spurs a 59% chance of beating the Thunder in Game 4 of the series. Our predicted final score in Game 3 of the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals has the Spurs winning 111-108.
According to our model, the bookmakers have got it right, and the Thunder and Spurs each have a 50% chance of covering the spread, while the 219.5-point over/under also has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.
Thunder vs. Spurs Game 3 odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Thunder | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +2.5 (-105) | -2.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +125 | -146 |
| Total | o219.5 (-110) | u219.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Thunder vs. Spurs picks and best bet for Game 4
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Thunder +2.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Spurs | -146 |
| Total | Under 219.5 | -108 |
According to our best NBA bets for Sunday, the top play to make on this game is Spurs to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 player props
Betting on Thunder vs. Spurs NBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Frost Bank Center.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is expected to lead the Thunder with 30 points, 4 rebounds and 8 assists, while Victor Wembanyama is projected to have 27 points, 13 rebounds and 4 assists for the Spurs.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Thunder prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Thunder are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Gilgeous-Alexander | 30 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 53 |
| Jalen Williams | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 28 |
| Chet Holmgren | 14 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 32 |
| Jared McCain | 12 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
| Alex Caruso | 10 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 22 |
Spurs prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Spurs:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Wembanyama | 27 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 62 |
| Stephon Castle | 18 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 42 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 16 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 35 |
| Devin Vassell | 14 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
| Dylan Harper | 11 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 24 |
Thunder vs. Spurs Game 4 updates and essential details
Sunday's Game 4 between the Spurs and Thunder in the NBA Western Conference Finals is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Date: Sunday, May 24, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
- NBA Playoffs bracket: Updated NBA Playoffs bracket and schedule
The winner of the 2026 NBA Western Conference Finals will advance to the NBA Finals. Game 3 of the best-of-seven series between the Thunder and Spurs is at San Antonio's Frost Bank Center.
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Conclusion
We predict the Spurs, with a 59% win probability, will likely beat the Thunder in Game 3 of the 2026 Western Conference Finals.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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