NBA Props: Five things to know for NBA betting on Friday, March 13

There are eight games on the NBA schedule this Friday, March 13, and we are looking at some of the best NBA player props to make across the full slate, thanks to some data-backed insights from the Dimers Pro suite of NBA betting tools.

This recurring article has yielded some great results lately, including a big night from Luka Doncic last night, and from our best bets and props to the Dimers Pro NBA Projections Hub and our prop trends, all exclusive to Dimers Pros, we have a loaded arsenal of features to help you cut through the noise and find the most profitable ways to bet on every single NBA game.

After debuting last season, the NBA Player Projections Hub quickly became one of the best ways to uncover hidden player prop value, providing daily projections for every NBA player, including points, rebounds, assists, blocks, and steals, and we'll be using this tool heavily today.

The expansive hub can identify players on the brink of significant statistical performances, notably those who are within range of double digits in multiple categories as “Double-Double Threats” or “Triple-Double Threats” as well as find players who are projected not just to hit their regular prop line, but go over even further and cash some plus-money alternate lines or ladder props.

To narrow down today's opportunities, we've identified five notable stats, projections, or matchups on Friday night.

1. Deni's big night

Game: Trail Blazers vs. Jazz

Tip: 10:00 PM ET

After surging to career numbers this season, Deni Avdija missed seven games after the All-Star Break with a back injury, returning just in time to help the Blazers as they prepare to lock down their play-in spot.

He's been back for two games, turning in 18/5/8 and 22/4/7 PTS/REB/AST lines in 25 and 34 minutes, respectively.

Our model projects his best performance since his return, with a line of 26.1 PTS, 6.4 REB and 8.0 AST, with his PTS and AST marks both projected over his standard lines and at plus money value alternates of 25+ (+128) and 8+ (+215).

His assists prop is the top of the night on Dimers with a 58.5% probability, and he's cleared it in both games since returning.

He'll face the Utah Jazz, who rank 22nd in opponent points and 27th in assists over their L15 games, interestingly enough ranking exactly the same when adjusted for Forwards.

2. Anthony Edwards' upside

Game: Timberwolves vs. Warriors

Tip: 10:00 PM ET

Few players have the upside that Anthony Edwards does tonight, at least according to our model's projections.

He projects with 29.9 PTS (ranked 2nd), 3.3 threes (1st), 38.9 PRA (5th) and with a 17.0% probability to score the first basket (2nd) by the Dimers model.

It's a largely neutral matchup as the Warriors rank right in the middle of the league in terms of PTS and Threes, but they do drop into the bottom third of the NBA when adjusting for the Guard position.

Edwards has hit 5+ threes in half of his games since the All-Star Break and it could be another big night from beyond the arc for him given the stakes.

It's the start of an important stretch for Minnesota. They've lost three straight and sit just one game above the Suns for sixth place in the Western Conference, a notable distinction as seeds 1-6 avoid the NBA Play-In tournament.

Facing the Warriors who are in 9th and would like to improve their seeding to at least 8th, this sets up to be a competitive game that requires Edwards' best.

3. Rudy Gobert's double double

Game: Timberwolves vs. Warriors

Tip: 10:00 PM ET

Let's stick in the same game and look at another player with upside.

Rudy Gobert is the top-projected rebounder of the night at 12.3 vs. the Warriors, who currently rank 29th in opponent rebounds over their past 15 games.

Since the All-Star Break, Gobert has three double doubles and 12+ boards in 7 of 9 games, so if you're looking for a single prop a rebounds ladder could be in play, especially with how opposing players have performed vs. the Warriors lately.

Over Golden State's past 10 games, opposing teams have seen a player hit 13, 15, 14, 11, 10, 20, and 15 rebounds as their leader.

Gobert is +108 for a double double on DraftKings, projected right in that range with 10.4 points and 12.3 boards. In the two games vs. Golden State in which he played 30+ minutes, he recorded 14 and 17 boards with a double double in both games, only going under both marks in a 24-minute blowout loss.

Dimers' top-projected rebounders on Friday.

4. Block party in Detroit?

Game: Pistons vs. Grizzlies

Tip: 7:30 PM ET

It's rare to see a team at the top of the standings with a major deficiency, but no team has had more shots blocked than the Pistons over their last 15 games at 6.5 per game, according to NBA.com.

Our model signals one player on their opponent tonight, the Memphis Grizzlies, with a chance to take advantage of that mismatch.

GG Jackson draws nearly a 50% probability of blocking a pair of shots tonight, presenting a big edge at 10.3% and odds of +165 on BetMGM.

Jackson projects just behind Isiah Stewart (1.5) for the most blocks in this game and has picked up at least 1 in 9 of 12 games since the All-Star Break.

5. Can't stop Kawhi

Game: Clippers vs. Bulls

Tip: 10:30 PM ET

If you were anywhere on Dimers yesterday, you likely saw Luka Doncic everywhere, from our socials to the podcast and on the Dimers homepage.

That's because he faced an elite matchup with the hapless Bulls, who cannot slow down anyone on defense, leading to a 51-point night with 9 threes for Luka and tonight, Kawhi Leonard gets that matchup, fresh off a 45-point explosion vs. the Timberwolves.

He projects as the top scorer on the slate with 30.6 points and the top-projected three-point shooter in this game at 2.6 threes - the Bull rank 25th or worse in both categories.

Blowouts and minutes can always be a concern in these one-sided games, but with Chicago on a back-to-back as well, everything lines up for Kawhi to have a big night if he plays his usual minutes.

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• NBA Game Predictions: Our data-backed previews for every NBA matchup, every day.
• NBA Best Bets: Our Top Picks for every game.
• NBA Finals Odds: Who will win the championship?
• Best NBA Props: Player edges and projections from our predictive analytics model
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