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Read Article Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Dinger Tuesday has +880 odds [4/28/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get home run predictions today backed by expert analysis of Tuesday's MLB slate.
Our MLB home run predictions for Tuesday, April 28, 2026, feature Shohei Ohtani as the top projected hitter, based on Dimers Pro's latest simulation data.
Tuesday's HR projections pull from our full list of home run predictions, which simulate every MLB matchup 10,000 times to reveal the most likely home run hitters today.
Home run predictions for April 28, 2026
See which hitters join Ohtani on today’s list — plus a long-shot pick the model rates as value at +880.
| Player (Team) | HR Projection |
|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers) | 23.9% |
| Kyle Schwarber (Phillies) | 22.9% |
| Nick Kurtz (Athletics) | 20.1% |
| Rece Hinds (Reds) | 19.2% |
| Shea Langeliers (Athletics) | 18.7% |
| Juan Soto (Mets) | 18.5% |
| Jo Adell (Angels) | 18.4% |
| Kyle Tucker (Dodgers) | 17.9% |
| Aaron Judge (Yankees) | 17.8% |
| Brent Rooker (Athletics) | 17.5% |
Our analysis shows Ohtani leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 23.9% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (22.9%) and Nick Kurtz (20.1%).
Rece Hinds and Shea Langeliers are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.
Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Tuesday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.
Tuesday's home run picks [4/28/2026]
Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, identifies today’s highest-rated home run prop.
Daulton Varsho (Blue Jays) to hit a home run
- Probability: 14.1%
- Odds: +880
- Edge: 3.9%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Blue Jays (7:07 PM EDT)
- Pitching matchup: Payton Tolle
Though outside today’s top 10 home run projections, Toronto slugger Daulton Varsho rates as a value play at +880 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 3.9% edge.
Against Red Sox starter Payton Tolle, the data supports Varsho as one of Tuesday’s strongest value spots among available home run props — and a natural fit for Dinger Tuesday, when bettors look for value in home run props across a packed MLB slate.
Originally sparked by sportsbook offers rewarding bonus bets for each home run hit by a selected player, Dinger Tuesday has evolved into a weekly tradition for MLB bettors — where clear, model-driven insights like these can help separate signal from noise.
Pro users have access to a total of five home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.
For more, check out today's FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Home Run picks for more detail on today's sluggers.
Conclusion
For April 28, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Kurtz projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Daulton Varsho who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 3.9% edge at +880 odds.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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