FanDuel Dinger Tuesday Home Run Picks: Top five HR hitters in the Dimers App today, April 28

Home run betting gets a boost today, April 28, as FanDuel's "Dinger Tuesday" promo is live on Tuesdays during the 2026 MLB season, with this year's version offering a choice between a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token, both eligible on any "To Hit a Home Run" wager for today's MLB games.

If you're new to the promotion or just need a refresher on the updated rules, we've got everything you need below, including today's top home run probabilities ranked by the Dimers model as seen with Dimers Pro.

Speaking of Dimers Pro, you can get every player's home run prediction every single day, making it the ultimate tool for home run betting in 2026. Sign up today and get a three-day free trial!

What Is Dinger Tuesday?

Dinger Tuesday is FanDuel Sportsbook's long-running weekly MLB promotion, dropping every Tuesday during the baseball season. This year, FanDuel has changed the format with a Choose Your Own Reward option, giving bettors the two bonuses to pick from.

Here's how it works:

1. Find the Choose Your Own Reward carousel card on the FanDuel homepage and click "Choose Reward."
2. Select one of two options: a Bet Reset Token or a 50% Profit Boost Token.
3. Click "Claim Reward" — it'll be loaded directly into your FanDuel account.
4. Apply it to any eligible "To Hit a Home Run" straight bet or parlay for today's MLB games.

Today's top home run probabilities – April 28, 2026

Our model has crunched the numbers across today's full MLB slate.

Below is a ranking of the best home run probabilities on the board and a breakdown of each matchup.

Note: Shohei Ohtani may appear at the top of our home run projections, but will reportedly only pitch and stay out of the lineup tonight.

1. Kyle Schwarber (Phillies)

Game: Phillies vs. Giants

Dimers Probability: 23.2%

FanDuel Odds: +235

Leading the way for tonight's home run probabilities is Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber.

Schwarber is still struggling to hit for average, but his power is still there, up to 9 HR on the season. 

The Giants send RHP Tyler Mahle to the mound, who's given up 6 HR so far this season. His Barrel rate is bottom 12th percentile in MLB. He does generate a good amount of ground balls, however Schwarber's ground ball rate is at its lowest ever through the early season.

Scwharber has faced Mahle in 19 AB in his career, hitting 2 homer runs with a 1.093 OPS against him.

He's not a value play or even at fair odds, as our 23.2% probability says he should be +330, but using FanDuel's 50% boost takes him over that price to +347.

2. Nick Kurtz (Athletics)

Game: Athletics vs. Royals

Dimers Probability: 20.2%

FanDuel Odds: +330

Next up is the A's sensational rookie from last year, Nick Kurtz at a 20.2% home run probability vs. the Royals.

Kurtz's power metrics are through the rook, with the only knock to his game being his high strikeout and whiff rates. But, after a slow start, he's picking up the pace, smacking 4 HR in his past 8 games. He hits well in his home park and would have as many as 8 home runs in the right park.

He'll contend with a lefty-lefty matchup tonight, still seeking his first off a lefthander this year, but hit 25% of his HR last year off that side and so far, he's showing better command and power against lefties than he did last year.

Kris Bubic takes the mound for the Royals, giving up 1 HR in 3 of 5 starts this year, and his top pitch mix of  4-seam/sinker/slider were Kurtz's three best pitches last season, and the Royals bullpen has struggled with HR as well, allowing 15 so far this season.

3. Rece Hinds (Reds)

Game: Reds vs. Rockies

Dimers Probability: 19.8%

FanDuel Odds: +440

Our best value of these five hitters lies with Rece Hinds of the Reds.

Fair odd for Hinds would be right around +405 so even without the boost, you're getting a little edge at 19.8% and +440.

The righty has spent most of his time in the Minors, but has flashed his home run ability when called up in the past, famously hitting 5 HR in the first 6 games of his MLB career in 2024.

The Rockies starter is TBD and they could go with a bullpen game, or potentially Kyle Freeland off the injured list.

Though allowing just a single HR thorough four starts this year, Freeland has struggled with HR vs. righthanded hitters in the past and Great American Ballpark is among the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.

Today's HR projctions from the Dimers App.

4. Juan Soto (Mets)

Game: Mets vs. Nationals

Dimers Probability: 18.8%

FanDuel Odds: +310

The return of Juan Soto hasn't quite given the Mets the spark they need and their 43-HR hitter from last year badly needs to start racking up the bombs.

If there was ever a time to do it, it would be tonight, when he faces his former club, the Washington Nationals, the team that's given up more HR than any in MLB with 48. Out of all the tam's home runs allowed, 24 of those have come from the bullpen, and *eleven* of them have come off tonight's starter Zack Littell.

Littell is in the bottom-tenth percentile in nearly every opponent hitting metric, allowing 9 of his HR to lefties like Soto.

Fair odds for Soto would be about +435, so using FanDuel's 50% Dinger Tuesday boost makes him a slight edge play at +465.

5. Shea Langeliers (Athletics)

Game: Athletics vs. Royals

Dimers Probability: 18.6%

FanDuel Odds: +340

To round out our Top 5, we go back to A's-Royals on the team's HR leader, Shea Langeliers who's up 8 HR on the year.

Langeliers is off to his best start after hitting career-high 29 and 31 HR in back-to-back seasons and has been great against both lefties and righties this year, with very similar numbers against either side.

Favorable weather at Sutter Health Park tonight where he's hit just 1 HR, but adjust for the ballpark, he'd still have 7 homers on the year.

Fair odds for the A's catcher would be +440, with the boost taking him to +460 for another slight edge when using the Dinger Tuesday promo.

Three ways to bet on Dinger Tuesday

1. High Probability approach

Back the players at the top of the probability list. You'll often be betting on the game's premier power hitters at shorter odds, but you're maximizing your chance of cashing. Pair this approach with the Profit Boost Token to squeeze some extra payout out of a high-confidence pick.

2. Maximum Value approach

Look for players where our model's probability significantly outpaces the implied probability in their FanDuel odds. Sometimes those will be top probability players, other times you'll have to check out our best MLB props if they're further down the board. These edges are where the real value always lies. Similarly, you can use the Profit Boost Token to turn a player who isn't a value play into a value play.

3. The Longshot Parlay

Stack two or more of today's value plays into a parlay for a significantly higher payout. Use the Bet Reset token to return your original wager in the form of bonus bets in case the wager loses. Just keep your unit size smaller than you'd use on a straight wager as parlays carry substantially higher variance.

Tips to picking your home run bets

A few key factors worth checking before locking in your picks:

• Matchup: How does the batter fare against this starter's primary pitch mix?
• Ballpark: Is there a short porch, elevation advantage, or favorable wind forecast?
• Bullpen: If the starter exits early, who's coming in — and are they prone to the long ball?
• Weather: Wind direction and temperature matter. Always check before first pitch.
• Head-to-Head History: Past at-bats against today's starter can reveal hidden edges.

Responsible gambling

Remember to please gamble responsibly. If you sense that you're taking your luck too far, know when to call it quits and don't be afraid to seek assistance. Keep in mind that gambling is all about having a fantastic experience! If you or someone you know is grappling with gambling issues, reach out to 1-800-MY-RESET for crisis counseling and support.