Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Thursday has +550 odds [9/10/2026]

• Aaron Judge (Yankees): 27.6% probability
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 22.3%
• Ben Rice (Yankees): 21.1%
• Jazz Chisholm (Yankees): 20.0%
• Spencer Jones (Yankees): 19.5%
• Austin Wells (Yankees): 18.2%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 17.8%
• Cody Bellinger (Yankees): 17.7%
• Bryce Harper (Phillies): 16.4%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 15.6%

Our analysis shows Judge leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 27.6% chance to go yard, followed by Kyle Schwarber (22.3%) and Ben Rice (21.1%).

Jazz Chisholm and Spencer Jones are among several other sluggers to crack the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR prediction for Thursday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Thursday's home run picks [9/10/2026]

After running 10,000 simulations per matchup and weighing key factors like weather and pitching form, Dimers Pro’s data highlights today’s top home run prop.

Austin Wells (Yankees) to hit a home run

• Probability: 18.2%
• Odds: +550
• Edge: 2.8%
• Pitching matchup: Ryan Feltner
• More game projections: Rockies vs. Yankees prediction (7:05 PM EDT)

Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, New York slugger Austin Wells rates as a value play at +550 with Fanatics, showing a 2.8% edge.

Set to face Ryan Feltner in tonight's Rockies-Yankees matchup, the data supports Wells as one of Thursday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to all of our home run predictions today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 10, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Aaron Judge, Kyle Schwarber and Ben Rice projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Austin Wells who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 2.8% edge at +550 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Thursday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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