Sep 10, 2026
Rays vs. Braves prediction: Why Atlanta is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/10/2026]
Read Article Astros vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 61.8% win probability for the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.
The Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros will lock horns in MLB action at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, starting at 1:05 PM ET.
The Phillies will start Zack Wheeler (12-5, 3.24 ERA), up against Cristian Javier (2-5, 5.98 ERA) for the Astros.
Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Phillies as the most likely winner in this Astros vs. Phillies prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
For more, dive into Zack Wheeler's pitching projections.
Astros vs. Phillies prediction and odds
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB matchup between the Astros and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Phillies a 61.8% chance of beating the Astros. According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 54.6% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 54.1% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Astros +1.5 (-125) / Phillies -1.5 (+120)
- Moneyline: Astros +163, Phillies -167
- Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-104/+102)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Phillies -1.5 @ +120 via bet365
- Moneyline: Astros @ 38¢ via Novig
- Total: Over 8.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first pitch details
Thursday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Astros at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to start at 1:05 PM ET.
- Who: Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
- Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026
- Time: 1:05 PM ET/10:05AM PT
- Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Conclusion
We predict the Phillies, with a 61.8% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Thursday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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