Astros vs. Phillies prediction: Why Philadelphia is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/10/2026]

MLB action continues on Thursday at 1:05 PM ET as the Houston Astros lock horns with the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies will send Zack Wheeler (12-5, 3.24 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Cristian Javier (2-5, 5.98 ERA) for the Astros.

Dimers' proven MLB model projects the Phillies as the most likely winner in this Astros vs. Phillies prediction.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

For more, dive into Zack Wheeler's pitching projections.

Astros vs. Phillies prediction and odds

Using innovative machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Astros and Phillies, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Phillies a 63.4% chance of defeating the Astros. According to our model, the Astros (+1.5) have a 53.1% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 56.0% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Astros +1.5 (-122) / Phillies -1.5 (+122)
• Moneyline: Astros +170, Phillies -174
• Total: Over/Under 8.5 (+100/+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Phillies -1.5 @ 45¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Phillies @ 64¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Thursday's MLB game between the Phillies and Astros at Citizens Bank Park is scheduled to start at 1:05 PM ET.

• Who: Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
• Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026
• Time: 1:05 PM ET/10:05AM PT
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park

Conclusion

We predict the Phillies, with a 63.4% win probability, will likely beat the Astros in Thursday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.