Pirates vs. White Sox prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Thursday's MLB matchup [9/10/2026]

The Chicago White Sox will face the Pittsburgh Pirates, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Rate Field on Thursday, beginning at 7:40 PM ET.

The White Sox will send Hagen Smith (3-1, 0.56 ERA) to the mound, pitting him against Jared Jones (3-6, 4.46 ERA) for the Pirates.

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 50.6% win probability over the White Sox.

This article offers a complete Pirates vs. White Sox prediction, including best bets and picks.

Pirates vs. White Sox prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday's MLB game between the Pirates and White Sox, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 50.6% chance of beating the White Sox. According to our model, the White Sox (+1.5) have a 61.8% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 7.5 runs has a 54.7% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Pirates -1.5 (+178) / White Sox +1.5 (-178)
• Moneyline: Pirates +106, White Sox -105
• Total: Over/Under 7.5 (-104/+104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Pirates -1.5 @ 36¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Pirates @ 49¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 7.5 @ 51¢ via Novig

According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 7.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first pitch details

Thursday's MLB action between the White Sox and Pirates at Rate Field is scheduled to commence at 7:40 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Chicago White Sox
• Date: Thursday, September 10, 2026
• Time: 7:40 PM ET/4:40PM PT
• Venue: Rate Field

Conclusion

We predict the Pirates, with a 50.6% win probability, will likely beat the White Sox in Thursday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary MLB prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.