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Pacers vs. Heat prediction: Why Miami is favored to win Saturday's NBA matchup [12/27/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Dave Garofolo, Content Producer
Get Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat predictions for NBA Saturday.
The Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers are scheduled to meet in NBA action at Kaseya Center on Saturday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulations and today’s injury reports, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Heat as the most likely winner of the Pacers vs. Heat game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Heat lineup will feature stars like Norman Powell, Tyler Herro and Bam Adebayo, while the Pacers will look to Pascal Siakam, Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Pacers vs. Heat prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's NBA matchup between the Pacers and Heat 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Heat a 75% chance of beating the Pacers. Our predicted final score has the Heat winning 118-111.
According to our model, the Pacers (+8.5) have a 53% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 230.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.
Pacers vs. Heat odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Pacers | Heat |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +8.5 (-106) | -8.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +295 | -350 |
| Total | o230.5 (-110) | u230.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Pacers vs. Heat picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pacers +8.5 | -106 |
| Moneyline | Pacers | +295 |
| Total | Under 230.5 | -105 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Pacers +8.5 at the spread.
Pacers vs. Heat player props
Betting on Indiana vs. Miami NBA prop bets? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Kaseya Center.
Pascal Siakam is expected to lead the Pacers with 22 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists, while Norman Powell is projected to have 21 points, 4 rebounds and 2 assists for the Heat.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Pacers prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Pacers are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam | 22 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 41 |
| B. Mathurin | 17 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 33 |
| Andrew Nembhard | 17 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 35 |
| T.J. McConnell | 10 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 25 |
| Jay Huff | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 24 |
Heat prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Heat:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Norman Powell | 21 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 35 |
| Tyler Herro | 18 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 34 |
| Bam Adebayo | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 38 |
| Andrew Wiggins | 16 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 32 |
| Jaime Jaquez | 15 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 30 |
Pacers vs. Heat game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's game between the Heat and Pacers at Kaseya Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat
- Date: Saturday, December 27, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Kaseya Center
Conclusion
We predict the Heat, with a 75% win probability, will likely beat the Pacers on Saturday, with Pascal Siakam projected for a game-high 41 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Pacers vs. Heat insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
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