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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Saturday, December 27, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/27.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Saturday, December 27, 2025—are live with the Cavaliers' Donovan Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Mitchell, Cooper Flagg and Nikola Jokic lead Saturday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's best first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 27, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 17.6% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.9% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.6% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 15.4% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 14.7% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.6% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 14.3% |
| Jamal Murray | Nuggets | 14.0% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.7% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 13.5% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 13.4% |
| DeMar DeRozan | Kings | 13.1% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.0% |
| P.J. Washington | Mavericks | 12.7% |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | Knicks | 12.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 27, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 2.5% | +650 | 15.9% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 1.9% | +950 | 11.4% |
| Kel'el Ware | Heat | 1.2% | +850 | 11.7% |
| Coby White | Bulls | 0.4% | +850 | 10.9% |
| Andrew Nembhard | Pacers | 0.2% | +800 | 11.4% |
| P.J. Washington | Mavericks | 0.2% | +700 | 12.7% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 0.2% | +550 | 15.6% |
| Jalen Johnson | Hawks | 0.1% | +650 | 13.5% |
| Trae Young | Hawks | 0.0% | +800 | 11.2% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/27.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Saturday, December 27, 2025, Donovan Mitchell, Cooper Flagg and Nikola Jokic lead our first basket projections, with Flagg shaping as the strongest value play at +650. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For guidance on safer wagering habits, explore our Responsible Gambling resources.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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