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Nuggets vs. Mavericks prediction: Denver favored to win Tuesday's NBA matchup [12/23/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks predictions for NBA Tuesday.
The Dallas Mavericks will face the favored Denver Nuggets in NBA action at American Airlines Center on Tuesday, starting at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on the latest simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Nuggets as the most likely winner of the Nuggets vs. Mavericks game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Mavericks lineup will feature stars like Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington, while the Nuggets will look to Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Cameron Johnson.
This article offers a closer look at Tuesday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Nuggets vs. Mavs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Tuesday's NBA matchup between the Nuggets and Mavericks 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Nuggets a 70% chance of beating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Nuggets winning 120-114.
According to our model, the Mavericks (+6.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the 235.5-point over/under has a 51% chance of staying under.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Nuggets | Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -6.5 (-112) | +6.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | -255 | +220 |
| Total | o235.5 (-108) | u235.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks +6.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | +220 |
| Total | Under 235.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +6.5 at the spread.
Nuggets vs. Mavericks player props
NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Tuesday's Denver vs. Dallas matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at American Airlines Center.
Nikola Jokic is expected to lead the Nuggets with 30 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists, while Anthony Davis is projected to have 24 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists for the Mavericks.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Nuggets prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Nuggets are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikola Jokic | 30 | 12 | 11 | 2 | 69 |
| Jamal Murray | 24 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 45 |
| Cameron Johnson | 16 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 31 |
| Peyton Watson | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 29 |
| Tim Hardaway | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 20 |
Mavericks prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mavericks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 24 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 50 |
| Cooper Flagg | 20 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 38 |
| P.J. Washington | 15 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 34 |
| Naji Marshall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
| Klay Thompson | 10 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 18 |
Nuggets vs. Mavs game-day updates and essential details
Tuesday's matchup between the Mavericks and Nuggets at American Airlines Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Denver Nuggets vs. Dallas Mavericks
- Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Conclusion
We predict the Nuggets, with a 70% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Tuesday, with Nikola Jokic projected for a game-high 69 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Nuggets vs. Mavericks insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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