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Nuggets vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Nuggets vs. Mavericks NBA game on December 23, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
130
131
Dec 24, 1AM American Airlines Center
Dec 24, 1AM American Airlines Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | 27 | 29 | 47 | 27 | 130 |
Mavericks | 41 | 25 | 37 | 28 | 131 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
38%
62%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nuggets | 27 | 29 | 47 | 27 | 130 |
Mavericks | 41 | 25 | 37 | 28 | 131 |
Q4 00:00 Peyton Watson misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:31 Nuggets makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:44 Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:51 Cooper Flagg misses two point driving floating jump shot
Q4 1:12 Nuggets makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:53 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Q4 5:29 Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:38 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Q4 6:02 Bruce Brown makes two point jump shot
Q4 6:09 Naji Marshall misses two point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
Peyton Watson misses three point jump shot
Nuggets offensive rebound
End of 4th Quarter.
Mavericks lineup change (Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin)
Mavericks offensive rebound
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
130-131
Bruce Brown offensive rebound
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Cooper Flagg misses two point driving floating jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
128-131
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Naji Marshall defensive rebound
Anthony Davis personal foul (Nikola Jokic draws the foul)
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
+2
Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot
130-131
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+2
Bruce Brown makes two point jump shot
130-131
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses two point jump shot
Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
Jamal Murray misses three point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
Caleb Martin offensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Peyton Watson, Jonas Valanciunas)
Jaden Hardy defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point jump shot
130-131
+2
Bruce Brown makes two point putback layup
130-131
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Nuggets lineup change (Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther, Jonas Valanciunas)
+2
Ryan Nembhard makes two point driving floating jump shot (Jaden Hardy assists)
130-131
+2
Ryan Nembhard makes two point jump shot
130-131
Caleb Martin offensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Julian Strawther personal foul (Ryan Nembhard draws the foul)
+1
Jonas Valanciunas makes regular free throw 1 of 2
130-131
Mavericks personal foul
+1
Jonas Valanciunas makes regular free throw 2 of 2
130-131
Mavericks personal foul
Julian Strawther offensive rebound
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Mavericks personal foul
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
130-131
+3
Julian Strawther makes three point jump shot
108-105
Jonas Valanciunas defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
End of 3rd Quarter.
Nuggets lineup change (Cameron Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther, Jonas Valanciunas)
Mavericks lineup change (Daniel Gafford, Cooper Flagg, Caleb Martin, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
+2
Bruce Brown makes two point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
130-131
Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
+3
Cameron Johnson makes three point jump shot
130-131
Julian Strawther personal foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
108-105
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
130-131
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
108-105
Jump ball. Nikola Jokic vs. Daniel Gafford (Bruce Brown gains possession)
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
130-131
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
130-131
Brandon Williams misses regular free throw 2 of 2
+2
Bruce Brown makes two point running layup (Jamal Murray assists)
108-105
Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Cameron Johnson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Julian Strawther)
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
130-131
+2
Caleb Martin makes two point jump shot
130-131
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
130-131
+2
Anthony Davis makes two point jump shot
85-98
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
+3
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes three point pullup jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
85-96
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot (Naji Marshall assists)
130-131
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
130-131
Jamal Murray turnover
Caleb Martin turnover (bad pass) (Bruce Brown steals)
Jamal Murray turnover (bad pass)
Mavericks violation
Nuggets personal foul (Brandon Williams draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Caleb Martin)
Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Caleb Martin)
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
108-105
+1
Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
108-105
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
79-91
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
76-88
Nikola Jokic shooting foul (Caleb Martin draws the foul)
+1
Caleb Martin makes regular free throw 1 of 1
130-131
Bruce Brown personal foul (Cooper Flagg draws the foul)
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
130-131
Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Caleb Martin)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks defensive rebound
Nikola Jokic misses two point jump shot
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point pullup jump shot (Caleb Martin assists)
76-88
Nikola Jokic defensive rebound
Nuggets personal foul
Peyton Watson turnover (offensive foul)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Spencer Jones)
Cooper Flagg misses two point tip dunk
Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
+2
Caleb Martin makes two point cutting layup (Anthony Davis assists)
130-131
Caleb Martin defensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones)
+2
Mavericks makes two point jump shot
76-91
Nuggets 60 second timeout
Mavericks lineup change (Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Caleb Martin, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
Nikola Jokic turnover
+2
Jaden Hardy makes two point jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
76-91
Nuggets turnover
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point jump shot
130-131
Cooper Flagg offensive rebound
Naji Marshall misses three point jump shot
+3
Cameron Johnson makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
76-84
Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
Cameron Johnson defensive rebound
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point driving finger roll layup (Nikola Jokic assists)
130-131
Instant replay (Request)
Jaden Hardy clear path foul (Peyton Watson draws the foul)
+1
Peyton Watson makes clear path free throw 2 of 2
130-131
+1
Peyton Watson makes clear path free throw 1 of 2
130-131
Anthony Davis turnover
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
130-131
+3
Mavericks makes three point jump shot
130-131
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Jamal Murray misses three point stepback jump shot
Anthony Davis personal foul (Nikola Jokic draws the foul)
Nikola Jokic shooting foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
130-131
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
130-131
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point driving layup
130-131
+3
Naji Marshall makes three point jump shot (Cooper Flagg assists)
130-131
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
130-131
Spencer Jones offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Mavericks turnover
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
63-68
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+3
Nikola Jokic makes three point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
130-131
+2
Jaden Hardy makes two point jump shot
130-131
+2
Nuggets makes two point jump shot
130-131
Mavericks offensive rebound
Nuggets offensive rebound
End of 1st Half.
Nikola Jokic misses three point turnaround jump shot
+3
Cooper Flagg makes three point jump shot
50-61
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
50-61
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Anthony Davis defensive rebound
Cameron Johnson misses two point running layup
Naji Marshall turnover (lost ball) (Spencer Jones steals)
Mavericks offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+3
Nuggets makes three point jump shot
130-131
Peyton Watson personal foul (Anthony Davis draws the foul)
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 1 of 2
130-131
+1
Anthony Davis makes regular free throw 2 of 2
130-131
Naji Marshall misses two point jump shot
Anthony Davis offensive rebound
Jaden Hardy personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
130-131
+1
Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
130-131
Peyton Watson defensive rebound
Ryan Nembhard misses two point jump shot
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Ryan Nembhard, Jaden Hardy)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Jaden Hardy)
Spencer Jones turnover
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Cameron Johnson, Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Spencer Jones)
Mavericks misses three point jump shot
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point jump shot
50-61
+2
Cooper Flagg makes two point driving floating jump shot
48-61
Nuggets turnover
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones)
Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams)
+3
D'Angelo Russell makes three point jump shot
50-61
Jamal Murray offensive rebound
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point jump shot
50-61
Nuggets offensive rebound
Nuggets misses two point jump shot
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Brandon Williams misses three point jump shot
+2
Julian Strawther makes two point running layup (Nikola Jokic assists)
50-61
Mavericks turnover
+2
Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
50-61
+2
Naji Marshall makes two point jump shot
50-61
Nikola Jokic offensive rebound
+2
Nikola Jokic makes two point layup
85-98
Mavericks 60 second timeout
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Curtis Jones, Jamal Murray, Julian Strawther, Spencer Jones)
Nuggets misses three point jump shot
Julian Strawther defensive rebound
Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Nuggets personal foul
Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Caleb Martin)
Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Curtis Jones, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Julian Strawther)
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point driving layup
40-54
Mavericks lineup change (D'Angelo Russell, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams)
Naji Marshall kicked ball violation
+2
Brandon Williams makes two point driving floating bank jump shot
38-54
+2
Jamal Murray makes two point pullup jump shot
38-52
Jamal Murray defensive rebound
Anthony Davis misses two point jump shot
+2
Jonas Valanciunas makes two point turnaround hook shot (Jamal Murray assists)
36-52
Cooper Flagg personal foul (Jonas Valanciunas draws the foul)
Mavericks lineup change (Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Anthony Davis, Brandon Williams, Jaden Hardy)
Nuggets lineup change (Curtis Jones, Jamal Murray, Tim Hardaway Jr., Julian Strawther, Jonas Valanciunas)
Mavericks lineup change (Daniel Gafford, Naji Marshall, Cooper Flagg, Brandon Williams, Jaden Hardy)
Cooper Flagg turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Bruce Brown turnover (bad pass) (Cooper Flagg steals)
+2
Jaden Hardy makes two point driving floating jump shot (Ryan Nembhard assists)
34-52
+3
Tim Hardaway Jr. makes three point jump shot (Spencer Jones assists)
34-50
Spencer Jones defensive rebound
Bruce Brown blocks Daniel Gafford's two point driving layup
+2
Bruce Brown makes two point driving floating jump shot (Jonas Valanciunas assists)
31-50
Bruce Brown defensive rebound
Cooper Flagg misses two point pullup jump shot
Cooper Flagg defensive rebound
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Nuggets vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Nuggets vs. Mavericks
- Date: Tuesday, December 23, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Nuggets favored at -6
- Total (Over/Under): 236.5
- Moneyline Odds: Nuggets -240, Mavericks +205
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Nuggets: 70%
- Mavericks: 30%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Nuggets 121-115 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Nuggets a win probability of 70%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 30%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Nuggets are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Wednesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Nuggets vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
When you click or tap on a link on Dimers that goes to a third-party website that we have a commercial relationship with (such as a sportsbook), we may receive a referral fee.
For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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