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Stars vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Dallas is favored to win Monday's NHL matchup [4/13/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Get Dallas Stars vs Toronto Maple Leafs predictions for NHL Monday.
NHL action continues on Monday at 7:30 PM ET as the Dallas Stars take on the Toronto Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' proven NHL model predicts the Stars as the most likely winner of the Stars vs. Maple Leafs game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Monday's matchup, including projected goal scorers, best bets and player prop picks.
Stars vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NHL game between the Stars and Maple Leafs, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Stars a 61% chance of defeating the Maple Leafs.
According to our model, the Maple Leafs (+1.5) have a 61% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6.5-goal over/under has a 53% chance of staying under.
Stars vs. Maple Leafs odds
We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Stars | Maple Leafs |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | -1.5 (+124) | +1.5 (-145) |
| Moneyline | -192 | +165 |
| Total | o6.5 (-105) | u6.5 (-104) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Stars vs. Maple Leafs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Puck Line | Maple Leafs +1.5 | -145 |
| Moneyline | Maple Leafs | +165 |
| Total | Under 6.5 | -104 |
According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Stars vs. Maple Leafs player props
Who will score a goal in Stars vs. Maple Leafs?
According to our model, Wyatt Johnston is most likely to score an anytime goal in Stars vs. Maple Leafs.
Our projections give Johnston a 43.3% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is an 8.4% chance of netting the first goal the game.
Anytime goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Wyatt Johnston | 43.3% |
| Jason Robertson | 42.2% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 37.5% |
| Matt Duchene | 26.5% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 23.0% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | Anytime Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 42.9% |
| John Tavares | 41.5% |
| Matthew Knies | 34.6% |
| Easton Cowan | 20.5% |
| Matias Maccelli | 18.2% |
First goal scorer predictions
Dallas Stars
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| Jason Robertson | 8.8% |
| Wyatt Johnston | 8.4% |
| Mikko Rantanen | 7.7% |
| Matt Duchene | 5.4% |
| Mavrik Bourque | 4.7% |
Toronto Maple Leafs
| Player | First Goal Probability |
|---|---|
| William Nylander | 9.1% |
| John Tavares | 8.8% |
| Matthew Knies | 6.8% |
| Easton Cowan | 3.7% |
| Matias Maccelli | 3.1% |
Stars vs. Maple Leafs game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Maple Leafs and Stars at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to commence at 7:30 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Stars vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
- Date: Monday, April 13, 2026
- Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
- Venue: Scotiabank Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Stars, with a 61% win probability, will likely beat the Maple Leafs in Monday's NHL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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