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Mavericks vs. Spurs prediction: San Antonio favored to win Friday's NBA game [4/10/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Mavericks vs San Antonio Spurs predictions for NBA Friday.
NBA action continues on Friday at 8:00 PM ET as the Dallas Mavericks look to defy the odds against the San Antonio Spurs at Frost Bank Center.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' proven NBA model projects the Spurs as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Spurs game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Spurs lineup will feature stars like Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and De'Aaron Fox, while the Mavericks will be led by Cooper Flagg, Klay Thompson and Marvin Bagley.
This article offers further insights into Friday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Mavs vs. Spurs prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Friday's NBA matchup between the Mavericks and Spurs, forming part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Spurs a 91% chance of defeating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Spurs winning 124-108.
According to our model, the Mavericks (+18.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 236.5 points has a 55% chance of staying under.
Mavericks vs. Spurs odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mavericks | Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +18.5 (-108) | -18.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +1040 | -1800 |
| Total | o236.5 (-110) | u236.5 (-110) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mavericks vs. Spurs picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks +18.5 | -108 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | +1040 |
| Total | Under 236.5 | -110 |
According to our best NBA bets for Friday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks +18.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mavericks vs. Spurs player props
NBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Friday's Mavericks vs. Spurs game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Frost Bank Center.
Cooper Flagg is expected to lead the Mavericks with 24 points, 7 rebounds and 5 assists, while Victor Wembanyama is projected to have 23 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Spurs.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Mavericks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cooper Flagg | 24 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 46 |
| Klay Thompson | 12 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 20 |
| Marvin Bagley | 11 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
| Max Christie | 11 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 22 |
| Khris Middleton | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 20 |
Spurs prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Spurs:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| V. Wembanyama | 23 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 47 |
| Stephon Castle | 18 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 42 |
| De'Aaron Fox | 18 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 37 |
| Keldon Johnson | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| Devin Vassell | 14 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 28 |
Mavs vs. Spurs game-day updates and essential details
Friday's game between the Spurs and Mavericks at Frost Bank Center is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. San Antonio Spurs
- Date: Friday, April 10, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Frost Bank Center
Conclusion
We predict the Spurs, with a 91% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks in Friday's NBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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