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Read Article NBA first basket picks and predictions for Friday, April 10, 2026
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get first basket predictions today driven by expert analysis of NBA slate on 4/10.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Friday, April 10, 2026—are live with the Celtics' Jaylen Brown projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections are based on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Victor Wembanyama lead Friday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (April 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Brown | Celtics | 17.1% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 16.7% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 16.5% |
| Cooper Flagg | Mavericks | 15.6% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 15.3% |
| Evan Mobley | Cavaliers | 15.3% |
| LeBron James | Lakers | 14.2% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 14.2% |
| Jalen Green | Suns | 13.8% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 13.6% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 13.1% |
| Jeremiah Fears | Pelicans | 13.0% |
| Deandre Ayton | Lakers | 13.0% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 12.7% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 12.7% |
NBA first basket picks today (April 10, 2026)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 2.1% | +850 | 12.6% |
| Tre Jones | Bulls | 2.0% | +650 | 15.3% |
| Franz Wagner | Magic | 1.9% | +750 | 13.6% |
| Darius Garland | Clippers | 1.7% | +700 | 14.2% |
| Jared McCain | Thunder | 1.3% | +800 | 12.5% |
| Aaron Wiggins | Thunder | 0.4% | +750 | 12.2% |
| Kawhi Leonard | Clippers | 0.1% | +500 | 16.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 4/10.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Friday, April 10, 2026, Jaylen Brown, Kawhi Leonard and Victor Wembanyama lead our first basket projections, while Anthony Edwards shapes as the strongest value play at +850. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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