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Mavericks vs. Pelicans prediction: New Orleans favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [12/22/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans predictions for NBA Monday.
NBA action continues on Monday at 8:00 PM ET as the Dallas Mavericks take on the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' proven NBA model predicts the Pelicans as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Pelicans game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pelicans lineup will feature stars like Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, while the Mavericks will be led by Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Mavs vs. Pelicans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA game between the Mavericks and Pelicans 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Pelicans a 56% chance of defeating the Mavericks. Our predicted final score has the Pelicans winning 120-118.
According to our model, the Pelicans (-1.5) have a 51% chance of covering the spread, while the 240.5-point over/under has a 54% chance of staying under.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds
We have researched the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mavericks | Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +1.5 (-110) | -1.5 (-105) |
| Moneyline | +104 | -115 |
| Total | o240.5 (-114) | u240.5 (-105) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pelicans -1.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Pelicans | -115 |
| Total | Under 240.5 | -105 |
According to our NBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 240.5 total points.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans player props
NBA player props are a great way to wager on the Mavericks vs. Pelicans game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Smoothie King Center.
Anthony Davis is expected to lead the Mavericks with 25 points, 12 rebounds and 4 assists, while Trey Murphy is projected to have 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists for the Pelicans.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Mavericks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 25 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 52 |
| Cooper Flagg | 22 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 41 |
| P.J. Washington | 17 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 36 |
| Naji Marshall | 16 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 31 |
| B. Williams | 12 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 27 |
Pelicans prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pelicans:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy | 23 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 42 |
| Zion Williamson | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 39 |
| Jordan Poole | 16 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 30 |
| Derik Queen | 14 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 35 |
| Saddiq Bey | 13 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 26 |
Mavs vs. Pelicans game-day updates and essential details
Monday's action between the Pelicans and Mavericks at Smoothie King Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Date: Monday, December 22, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Smoothie King Center
Conclusion
We predict the Pelicans, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat the Mavericks on Monday, with Anthony Davis projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Pelicans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on up-to-date data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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