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Mavericks vs. Pelicans prediction: Dallas favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [12/22/2025]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Dallas Mavericks vs New Orleans Pelicans predictions for NBA Monday.
The New Orleans Pelicans and Dallas Mavericks will lock horns in NBA action at Smoothie King Center on Monday, with tipoff at 8:00 PM ET.
Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury updates, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Mavericks as the most likely winner of the Mavericks vs. Pelicans game.
This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Pelicans lineup will feature players like Trey Murphy, Zion Williamson and Jordan Poole, while the Mavericks will be led by Anthony Davis, Cooper Flagg and Naji Marshall.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.
Mavs vs. Pelicans prediction: Who will win and cover?
Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA matchup between the Mavericks and Pelicans 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Mavericks a 55% chance of beating the Pelicans. Our predicted final score has the Mavericks winning 120-119.
According to our model, the Mavericks (-1.5) have a 52% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 241.5 points has a 54% chance of staying under.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans odds
We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mavericks | Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -1.5 (-105) | +1.5 (-115) |
| Moneyline | -112 | +100 |
| Total | o241.5 (-105) | u241.5 (-114) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mavericks -1.5 | -105 |
| Moneyline | Mavericks | -112 |
| Total | Under 241.5 | -114 |
According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Mavericks to win.
Mavericks vs. Pelicans player props
NBA prop bets are a common way to wager on the Mavericks vs. Pelicans matchup without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Smoothie King Center.
Anthony Davis is expected to lead the Mavericks with 24 points, 11 rebounds and 4 assists, while Trey Murphy is projected to have 23 points, 6 rebounds and 4 assists for the Pelicans.
Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.
Mavericks prediction
Our model's projected player stats for the Mavericks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Davis | 24 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 52 |
| Cooper Flagg | 22 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 41 |
| Naji Marshall | 17 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 33 |
| P.J. Washington | 16 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 |
| B. Williams | 13 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 30 |
Pelicans prediction
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Pelicans:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy | 23 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 42 |
| Zion Williamson | 21 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 39 |
| Jordan Poole | 17 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 30 |
| Derik Queen | 15 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 36 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 13 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 25 |
Mavs vs. Pelicans game-day updates and essential details
Monday's matchup between the Pelicans and Mavericks at Smoothie King Center is scheduled to begin at 8:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Mavericks vs. New Orleans Pelicans
- Date: Monday, December 22, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
- Venue: Smoothie King Center
Conclusion
We predict the Mavericks, with a 55% win probability, will likely beat the Pelicans on Monday, with Anthony Davis projected for a game-high 52 fantasy points.
AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Mavericks vs. Pelicans insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are based on the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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