Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul prediction, odds, picks for 2026 Australian Open

Carlos Alcaraz will take on Tommy Paul in the fourth round of the 2026 Australian Open on Saturday.

Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' advanced tennis model projects Carlos Alcaraz as the most likely winner of the Alcaraz vs. Paul match.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's match, including best bets and picks.

Alcaraz vs. Paul prediction: Who will win and advance to the quarterfinals?

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the result of Saturday's Alcaraz-Paul men's singles match 10,000 times as part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Alcaraz a 91% chance of defeating Paul in the 2026 Australian Open.

Additionally, Alcaraz has an 83% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Alcaraz (-6.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 35.5 games has a 66% chance of hitting**, according to our model.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Alcaraz vs. Paul picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is over 35.5 total games.

Alcaraz vs. Paul updates and essential details

The 2026 Australian Open match between Carlos Alcaraz and Tommy Paul is scheduled to begin on Saturday at 9:30 PM ET.

• Who: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Tommy Paul
• Date: Saturday, January 24, 2026
• Approx. Time: 9:30 PM ET/6:30PM PT
• Tournament: 2026 Australian Open, Men's Singles
• Round: Fourth round

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Carlos Alcaraz, with a 91% win probability, will likely beat Tommy Paul at the 2026 Australian Open.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Alcaraz vs. Paul insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are drawn from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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