Elise Mertens vs. Iga Swiatek prediction, odds, picks for WTA China Open 2026

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's Mertens-Swiatek women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Swiatek a 79% chance of winning against Mertens at the WTA China Open tournament.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Iga Swiatek -455, Elise Mertens +365

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Mertens @ +365 via DraftKings
• First Set: Swiatek @ -125 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Elise Mertens to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The WTA China Open match between Elise Mertens and Iga Swiatek is scheduled to commence on Friday at 1:00 AM ET.

• Who: Elise Mertens vs. Iga Swiatek
• Date: Friday, October 9, 2026
• Approx. Time: 1:00 AM ET/10:00PM PT
• Tournament: WTA Beijing, China Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Iga Swiatek, with a 79% win probability, will likely beat Elise Mertens at the WTA China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.