Hawks vs. Thunder prediction: Oklahoma City favored to win Monday's NBA matchup [12/29/2025]

The Oklahoma City Thunder will take on the Atlanta Hawks in NBA action at Paycom Center on Monday, commencing at 8:00 PM ET.

Based on updated simulation results and today’s injury news, Dimers' advanced NBA model predicts the Thunder as the most likely winner of the Hawks vs. Thunder game.

This prediction follows the latest NBA Injury Report, which suggests the Thunder lineup will feature players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, while the Hawks will look to Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu and Dyson Daniels.

This article offers further insights into Monday's matchup, including an expanded look at the predicted score, best bets and player prop picks.

Hawks vs. Thunder prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's NBA game between the Hawks and Thunder 10,000 times as part of our NBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Thunder an 89% chance of beating the Hawks. Our predicted final score has the Thunder winning 123-108.

According to our model, the Hawks (+16.5) have a 59% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 232.5 points has a 51% chance of staying under.

Hawks vs. Thunder odds

We have sourced the best NBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Hawks	Thunder
Spread	+16.5 (-105)	-16.5 (-115)
Moneyline	+750	-1100
Total	o232.5 (-110)	u232.5 (-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Hawks vs. Thunder picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Hawks +16.5	-105
Moneyline	Hawks	+750
Total	Under 232.5	-108

According to our best NBA bets for Monday, the top play to make on this game is Hawks +16.5 at the spread.

Hawks vs. Thunder player props

Looking for Hawks vs. Thunder NBA prop bets? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Paycom Center.

Nickeil Alexander-Walker is expected to lead the Hawks with 20 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is projected to have 31 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists for the Thunder.

Check out our NBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and today's NBA first basket picks.

Hawks prediction

Our model's projected player stats for the Hawks are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
N. Alexander-Walker	20	4	4	3	36
Onyeka Okongwu	15	9	3	2	37
Dyson Daniels	13	7	6	1	36
Z. Risacher	12	4	2	2	24
Vit Krejci	12	3	2	3	23

Thunder prediction

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Thunder:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
S. Gilgeous-Alexander	31	5	7	2	54
Jalen Williams	20	5	6	1	41
Chet Holmgren	18	9	2	2	38
Ajay Mitchell	12	3	3	1	25
Aaron Wiggins	10	3	2	2	19

Hawks vs. Thunder game-day updates and essential details

Monday's matchup between the Thunder and Hawks at Paycom Center is scheduled to commence at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Hawks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
• Date: Monday, December 29, 2025
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Paycom Center

Conclusion

We predict the Thunder, with an 89% win probability, will likely beat the Hawks on Monday, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected for a game-high 54 fantasy points.

AI and automation have enhanced this article to quickly deliver accurate Hawks vs. Thunder insights, with human oversight ensuring high editorial quality. Our predictions are sourced from the latest data to help you make informed decisions. For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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