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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, December 29, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today guided by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/29.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, December 29, 2025—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell and Shaedon Sharpe lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 29, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 18.0% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 16.8% |
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 16.8% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 16.5% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 15.8% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 15.4% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 15.2% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.2% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 15.2% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.8% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.5% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 14.2% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 13.5% |
| Kevin Durant | Rockets | 13.3% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 29, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaedon Sharpe | Trail Blazers | 3.5% | +650 | 16.8% |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | Hawks | 2.7% | +950 | 12.2% |
| Tre Johnson | Wizards | 2.2% | +1000 | 11.3% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.8% | +650 | 15.2% |
| Amen Thompson | Rockets | 1.6% | +950 | 11.1% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 0.4% | +550 | 15.8% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 0.2% | +650 | 13.5% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.1% | +550 | 15.5% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/29.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, December 29, 2025, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell and Shaedon Sharpe lead our first basket projections, with Sharpe shaping as the strongest value play at +650. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
For tips and resources on responsible wagering, visit our Responsible Gambling section.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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