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NBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, December 29, 2025
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Innovation Officer
Get first basket predictions today backed by expert analysis of NBA slate on 12/29.
Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Monday, December 29, 2025—are live with the Bucks' Giannis Antetokounmpo projected as the most likely player to score first.
These projections draw on key first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily NBA player projections.
Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell and Stephen Curry lead Monday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.
NBA first basket predictions tonight (December 29, 2025)
| Player | Team | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Bucks | 18.0% |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | 16.8% |
| Stephen Curry | Warriors | 16.2% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 15.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 15.7% |
| LaMelo Ball | Hornets | 15.2% |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | 15.2% |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | Thunder | 15.0% |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | 14.8% |
| Victor Wembanyama | Spurs | 14.5% |
| Pascal Siakam | Pacers | 13.8% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 13.7% |
| Devin Booker | Suns | 13.0% |
| Norman Powell | Heat | 13.0% |
| Brandon Ingram | Raptors | 12.8% |
NBA first basket picks today (December 29, 2025)
| Player | Team | Edge | Odds | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Asa Newell | Hawks | 5.4% | +1400 | 12.0% |
| RJ Barrett | Raptors | 1.6% | +950 | 11.1% |
| Alex Sarr | Wizards | 1.2% | +700 | 13.7% |
| Nikola Vucevic | Bulls | 0.5% | +850 | 11.1% |
| Nikola Jokic | Nuggets | 0.4% | +550 | 15.8% |
| Dillon Brooks | Suns | 0.3% | +550 | 15.7% |
Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.
For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of NBA prop bets for 12/29.
Conclusion: Betting on today's NBA first basket
For Monday, December 29, 2025, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Donovan Mitchell and Stephen Curry lead our first basket projections, while Asa Newell shapes as the strongest value play at +1400. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ NBA first basket model.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness leverages over 15 years of experience to create engaging content focused on sports, online gaming and wagering. As Chief Innovation Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, the parent company of Dimers, he offers strategic insights and innovative solutions to enhance the player experience.
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