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Hawks vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Hawks vs. Thunder NBA game on December 29, 2025 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
129
140
Dec 30, 1AM Paycom Center
Dec 30, 1AM Paycom Center
In-Play ProbabilitiesIn-Play
Game PredictionsPre-Game
Best Bets | TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hawks | 38 | 36 | 29 | 26 | 129 |
Thunder | 35 | 35 | 43 | 27 | 140 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
Win %
<1%
>99%
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hawks | 38 | 36 | 29 | 26 | 129 |
Thunder | 35 | 35 | 43 | 27 | 140 |
Q4 1:08 Dyson Daniels misses two point tip layup
Q4 1:11 Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point pullup jump shot
Q4 1:18 Chet Holmgren makes two point dunk (Alex Caruso assists)
Q4 1:26 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point turnaround jump shot
Q4 2:02 Cason Wallace makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
Q4 2:11 Cason Wallace blocks Onyeka Okongwu's two point layup
Q4 2:24 Chet Holmgren misses three point stepback jump shot
Q4 2:32 Jalen Williams misses two point driving layup
Q4 3:02 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point stepback jump shot
Q4 3:21 Zaccharie Risacher misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
End of 4th Quarter.
Thunder turnover (shot clock violation)
Luke Kennard turnover (lost ball) (Jalen Williams steals)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (lost ball) (Asa Newell steals)
Vit Krejci personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
Onyeka Okongwu turnover (lost ball) (Cason Wallace steals)
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Dyson Daniels misses two point tip layup
Hawks offensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point pullup jump shot
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point dunk (Alex Caruso assists)
129-140
Hawks 60 second timeout
Luke Kennard turnover (bad pass) (Alex Caruso steals)
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point turnaround jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu offensive foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
Onyeka Okongwu turnover (offensive foul)
+3
Cason Wallace makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
129-138
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Cason Wallace blocks Onyeka Okongwu's two point layup
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses three point stepback jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Jalen Williams misses two point driving layup
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Chet Holmgren shooting foul (Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws the foul)
+1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes regular free throw 1 of 2
129-135
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci)
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point stepback jump shot
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Zaccharie Risacher misses three point jump shot
+3
Chet Holmgren makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
128-135
+3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes three point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
128-132
+3
Alex Caruso makes three point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
125-132
Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Upheld)
Dyson Daniels turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
Hawks 60 second timeout
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
Zaccharie Risacher blocks Cason Wallace's two point cutting layup
Thunder offensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker blocks Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's two point driving layup
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
+3
Zaccharie Risacher makes three point jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)
125-129
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Dyson Daniels misses two point turnaround hook shot
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
122-129
Asa Newell shooting foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell)
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
122-128
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Vit Krejci misses two point driving layup
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot
+2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point pullup jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
122-127
+3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point stepback jump shot
120-127
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Cason Wallace shooting foul (Asa Newell draws the foul)
Asa Newell misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Ajay Mitchell)
+1
Asa Newell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
120-124
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Zaccharie Risacher, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
Luke Kennard defensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point pullup jump shot
Luke Kennard defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses three point jump shot
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell)
Thunder 60 second timeout
+2
Luke Kennard makes two point pullup jump shot (Vit Krejci assists)
119-124
Luke Kennard defensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell misses two point driving layup
Dyson Daniels blocks Chet Holmgren's two point driving layup
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Luke Kennard kicked ball violation
Thunder offensive rebound
+3
Vit Krejci makes three point stepback bank jump shot (Asa Newell assists)
117-124
Asa Newell shooting foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
114-123
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
114-124
+2
Vit Krejci makes two point pullup jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)
114-122
Ajay Mitchell personal foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
Mouhamed Gueye defensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell misses three point running pullup jump shot
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point pullup jump shot
Keaton Wallace turnover (bad pass) (Ajay Mitchell steals)
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point cutting dunk (Ajay Mitchell assists)
112-122
Thunder turnover
+3
Cason Wallace makes three point pullup jump shot
112-120
+3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes three point jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
112-117
+2
Ajay Mitchell makes two point driving hook shot
109-117
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Luke Kennard misses three point running jump shot
Aaron Wiggins turnover (bad pass) (Mouhamed Gueye steals)
+3
Onyeka Okongwu makes three point jump shot (Mouhamed Gueye assists)
109-115
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
Keaton Wallace misses three point jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point pullup jump shot
+3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes three point pullup jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
106-115
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point cutting layup (Aaron Wiggins assists)
103-115
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses two point driving layup
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses three point stepback jump shot
End of 3rd Quarter.
Start of 4th Quarter
Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Keaton Wallace, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu)
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell)
Ajay Mitchell personal foul
Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Overturned)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Asa Newell turnover (offensive goaltending)
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point running layup
103-113
Keaton Wallace turnover (lost ball) (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
103-111
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
103-110
Nickeil Alexander-Walker shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Asa Newell misses three point jump shot
+3
Alex Caruso makes three point jump shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)
103-109
+3
Luke Kennard makes three point jump shot (Keaton Wallace assists)
102-106
Isaiah Joe shooting foul (Luke Kennard draws the foul)
+1
Luke Kennard makes regular free throw 1 of 1
103-106
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell misses two point floating jump shot
+2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
99-106
Asa Newell shooting foul (Ajay Mitchell draws the foul)
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 1 of 2
97-105
+1
Ajay Mitchell makes regular free throw 2 of 2
97-106
Hawks lineup change (Asa Newell, Keaton Wallace, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu)
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Asa Newell misses two point driving floating jump shot
Ajay Mitchell personal foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
Ajay Mitchell personal foul (Dyson Daniels draws the foul)
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point stepback jump shot
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses two point floating jump shot
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell misses three point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander offensive rebound
Isaiah Joe misses three point stepback jump shot
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Zaccharie Risacher, Luke Kennard, Onyeka Okongwu)
Thunder 60 second timeout
+2
Asa Newell makes two point driving dunk (Luke Kennard assists)
97-104
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (lost ball) (Dyson Daniels steals)
+2
Vit Krejci makes two point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
95-104
Hawks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Zaccharie Risacher, Luke Kennard, Vit Krejci)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Branden Carlson, Ajay Mitchell)
Isaiah Joe misses three point jump shot
+3
Asa Newell makes three point jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)
93-104
+2
Alex Caruso makes two point driving finger roll layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
90-104
+2
Dyson Daniels makes two point driving finger roll layup
90-102
Luguentz Dort personal foul (Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws the foul)
Asa Newell shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
88-101
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
88-102
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
+3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes three point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
88-100
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point running layup (Luguentz Dort assists)
85-100
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Vit Krejci misses three point jump shot
Hawks defensive rebound
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
Jalen Williams misses three point pullup jump shot
+2
Vit Krejci makes two point driving finger roll layup (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
85-98
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point driving finger roll layup
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Thunder 60 second timeout
Instant replay (Challenge: Ruling Overturned)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci)
Thunder challenge timeout
Thunder defensive rebound
Vit Krejci misses three point jump shot
+2
Cason Wallace makes two point running dunk
83-98
Zaccharie Risacher turnover (bad pass) (Cason Wallace steals)
+3
Cason Wallace makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
83-96
+2
Onyeka Okongwu makes two point driving floating jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
83-93
Hawks 60 second timeout
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point running pullup jump shot
81-93
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point cutting dunk (Cason Wallace assists)
81-91
+3
Zaccharie Risacher makes three point jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
81-89
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving floating jump shot
78-89
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Zaccharie Risacher misses three point jump shot
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point putback layup
78-87
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point driving floating jump shot
Jalen Williams offensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses two point driving reverse layup
+3
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes three point stepback jump shot
78-85
+3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes three point jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
78-82
+3
Luguentz Dort makes three point running jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
75-82
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren blocks Onyeka Okongwu's two point layup
Zaccharie Risacher defensive goaltending violation
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point running layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
75-79
Hawks 60 second timeout
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Dyson Daniels misses two point driving layup
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point driving layup
75-77
Nickeil Alexander-Walker turnover (out of bounds lost ball)
+2
Luguentz Dort makes two point turnaround jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
75-74
Nickeil Alexander-Walker shooting foul (Luguentz Dort draws the foul)
+1
Luguentz Dort makes regular free throw 1 of 1
75-75
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point stepback jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point fadeaway jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
75-72
Zaccharie Risacher personal foul (Loose ball) (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
Thunder offensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
Chet Holmgren shooting foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
Hawks offensive rebound
+1
Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 2 of 2
75-70
Onyeka Okongwu misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
+2
Dyson Daniels makes two point turnaround jump shot
74-70
End of 1st Half.
Start of 3rd Quarter
Jalen Williams turnover (lost ball) (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Jalen Williams blocks Nickeil Alexander-Walker's two point driving layup
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving layup
72-70
+2
Dyson Daniels makes two point driving floating jump shot
71-68
Cason Wallace shooting foul (Dyson Daniels draws the foul)
Chet Holmgren personal foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell)
+1
Dyson Daniels makes regular free throw 1 of 1
72-68
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
Chet Holmgren turnover
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
Instant replay
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point layup
69-68
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Cason Wallace misses three point pullup jump shot
+3
Vit Krejci makes three point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
69-66
+2
Alex Caruso makes two point pullup jump shot (Chet Holmgren assists)
66-66
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace)
Hawks personal foul
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Dyson Daniels misses two point driving floating jump shot
+2
Alex Caruso makes two point layup (Cason Wallace assists)
66-64
Cason Wallace offensive rebound
Alex Caruso misses two point driving layup
+3
Zaccharie Risacher makes three point jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)
66-62
Cason Wallace personal foul (Vit Krejci draws the foul)
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving layup
63-62
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
Thunder 60 second timeout
+3
Zaccharie Risacher makes three point jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)
63-60
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point pullup jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu personal foul (Loose ball) (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Thunder defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses two point stepback jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses two point pullup jump shot
Dyson Daniels turnover (lost ball) (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander steals)
Alex Caruso offensive rebound
Alex Caruso turnover (bad pass)
Branden Carlson misses three point jump shot
Thunder defensive rebound
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci)
Stoppage (Out of bounds)
Luke Kennard misses three point jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point running layup (Cason Wallace assists)
60-60
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Luke Kennard misses two point running layup
Luguentz Dort turnover (bad pass) (Luke Kennard steals)
Onyeka Okongwu offensive foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
Onyeka Okongwu turnover (offensive foul)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Branden Carlson, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
+3
Cason Wallace makes three point running jump shot (Ajay Mitchell assists)
60-58
Onyeka Okongwu turnover (bad pass) (Ajay Mitchell steals)
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point fadeaway jump shot
60-55
+2
Dyson Daniels makes two point driving finger roll layup
60-53
Luke Kennard shooting foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell)
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
58-53
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
58-52
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
+3
Chet Holmgren makes three point jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
58-51
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Vit Krejci misses three point pullup jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses two point driving layup
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Zaccharie Risacher misses three point running pullup jump shot
Onyeka Okongwu defensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point driving floating bank jump shot
+2
Onyeka Okongwu makes two point driving floating jump shot
58-48
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point alley-oop dunk (Ajay Mitchell assists)
56-48
Cason Wallace shooting foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
+1
Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 2 of 2
56-46
+1
Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 1 of 2
55-46
Ajay Mitchell personal foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Luke Kennard, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci)
+2
Aaron Wiggins makes two point tip layup
54-46
Aaron Wiggins offensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell misses three point running jump shot
Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell blocks Nickeil Alexander-Walker's two point running layup
Kenrich Williams turnover (bad pass) (Keaton Wallace steals)
Kenrich Williams offensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses two point jump shot
+3
Luke Kennard makes three point running jump shot (Mouhamed Gueye assists)
54-44
Jalen Williams turnover (bad pass) (Mouhamed Gueye steals)
+1
Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 1 of 2
50-44
Kenrich Williams shooting foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
+1
Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 2 of 2
51-44
Hawks lineup change (Mouhamed Gueye, Keaton Wallace, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu)
Hawks 60 second timeout
+2
Ajay Mitchell makes two point pullup jump shot
49-44
+3
Keaton Wallace makes three point jump shot (Mouhamed Gueye assists)
49-42
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
Kenrich Williams blocks Nickeil Alexander-Walker's three point stepback jump shot
+2
Chet Holmgren makes two point putback layup
46-42
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point driving layup
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Asa Newell misses three point jump shot
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point driving layup
46-40
+2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point running finger roll layup
46-38
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Aaron Wiggins misses two point cutting finger roll layup
+3
Keaton Wallace makes three point pullup jump shot (Luke Kennard assists)
44-38
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point driving finger roll layup
41-37
Mouhamed Gueye shooting foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 1
41-38
+3
Asa Newell makes three point jump shot (Keaton Wallace assists)
41-35
End of 1st Quarter.
+3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes three point pullup jump shot
38-35
Instant replay (Request: Ruling Upheld)
Hawks lineup change (Asa Newell, Mouhamed Gueye, Keaton Wallace, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker)
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams)
Start of 2nd Quarter
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Ajay Mitchell, Kenrich Williams)
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving floating jump shot
35-34
Nickeil Alexander-Walker shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 1
35-35
+2
Onyeka Okongwu makes two point layup (Luke Kennard assists)
35-32
Alex Caruso kicked ball violation
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point stepback jump shot
+3
Keaton Wallace makes three point jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)
33-32
+2
Branden Carlson makes two point cutting dunk (Isaiah Joe assists)
30-32
Alex Caruso defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point stepback jump shot
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses three point stepback jump shot
+3
Onyeka Okongwu makes three point jump shot (Asa Newell assists)
30-30
+2
Branden Carlson makes two point dunk (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
27-30
Branden Carlson shooting foul (Onyeka Okongwu draws the foul)
+1
Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 1 of 2
26-28
+1
Onyeka Okongwu makes regular free throw 2 of 2
27-28
+2
Alex Caruso makes two point running dunk
25-28
Asa Newell turnover (bad pass) (Alex Caruso steals)
Hawks 60 second timeout
+2
Alex Caruso makes two point cutting layup (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
25-26
Hawks lineup change (Asa Newell, Keaton Wallace, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu)
Hawks delay of game violation
+3
Onyeka Okongwu makes three point jump shot (Vit Krejci assists)
25-24
Vit Krejci offensive rebound
Luke Kennard misses three point jump shot
+2
Ajay Mitchell makes two point driving layup
22-24
Ajay Mitchell defensive rebound
Asa Newell misses three point running jump shot
Luke Kennard defensive rebound
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses two point stepback jump shot
+2
Onyeka Okongwu makes two point putback layup
22-22
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
Ajay Mitchell blocks Nickeil Alexander-Walker's two point driving layup
Luguentz Dort personal foul (Loose ball) (Dyson Daniels draws the foul)
Hawks offensive rebound
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Branden Carlson, Ajay Mitchell)
Hawks lineup change (Asa Newell, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci)
Thunder delay of game violation
Mouhamed Gueye misses two point floating jump shot
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
+3
Vit Krejci makes three point jump shot (Dyson Daniels assists)
20-22
Dyson Daniels defensive rebound
Luguentz Dort misses three point running jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Vit Krejci misses three point jump shot
+1
Branden Carlson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
17-21
Thunder offensive rebound
Mouhamed Gueye personal foul (Loose ball) (Branden Carlson draws the foul)
+1
Branden Carlson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
17-22
Luguentz Dort misses three point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Dyson Daniels misses two point driving floating jump shot
Luke Kennard shooting foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Branden Carlson, Luguentz Dort)
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
17-20
+1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
17-19
Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
Mouhamed Gueye misses regular free throw 2 of 2
Alex Caruso shooting foul (Mouhamed Gueye draws the foul)
Hawks offensive rebound
Mouhamed Gueye misses regular free throw 1 of 2
Dyson Daniels misses three point jump shot
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander personal foul (Dyson Daniels draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving dunk (Alex Caruso assists)
17-18
Alex Caruso offensive rebound
Alex Caruso misses two point layup
Cason Wallace defensive rebound
Vit Krejci misses three point jump shot
Mouhamed Gueye offensive rebound
Asa Newell misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
Thunder offensive rebound
Asa Newell shooting foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
Jalen Williams misses regular free throw 1 of 2
+1
Jalen Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
17-16
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Mouhamed Gueye, Luke Kennard, Vit Krejci)
+2
Dyson Daniels makes two point driving floating jump shot
17-15
Cason Wallace turnover (out of bounds bad pass)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point jump shot
+2
Jalen Williams makes two point driving layup
15-15
Chet Holmgren shooting foul (Nickeil Alexander-Walker draws the foul)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Asa Newell, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Vit Krejci)
+1
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes regular free throw 1 of 1
15-13
+2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point driving finger roll layup
14-13
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren misses two point turnaround hook shot
Thunder 60 second timeout
+3
Luke Kennard makes three point running jump shot (Onyeka Okongwu assists)
12-13
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (bad pass) (Onyeka Okongwu steals)
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Luke Kennard, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci)
Zaccharie Risacher turnover (offensive foul)
Zaccharie Risacher offensive foul (Jalen Williams draws the foul)
+3
Cason Wallace makes three point running jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)
9-13
Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
Onyeka Okongwu misses three point jump shot
Hawks personal foul
Chet Holmgren turnover (bad pass) (Vit Krejci steals)
Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
Chet Holmgren blocks Dyson Daniels's two point driving layup
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 2
9-10
Zaccharie Risacher shooting foul (Chet Holmgren draws the foul)
+1
Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 2
9-9
+2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker makes two point driving reverse layup
9-8
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
7-8
Jalen Williams defensive rebound
Zaccharie Risacher misses three point running jump shot
Chet Holmgren turnover (lost ball) (Zaccharie Risacher steals)
Dyson Daniels turnover (3-second violation)
Hawks violation
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point stepback jump shot
7-6
+2
Onyeka Okongwu makes two point layup
7-4
Onyeka Okongwu offensive rebound
Zaccharie Risacher offensive rebound
Zaccharie Risacher misses two point tip layup
Onyeka Okongwu misses two point driving floating jump shot
Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point fadeaway jump shot
Vit Krejci personal foul (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander draws the foul)
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
Nickeil Alexander-Walker misses three point pullup jump shot
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point driving layup
5-4
+3
Vit Krejci makes three point jump shot (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)
5-2
+2
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot (Chet Holmgren assists)
2-2
Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
Dyson Daniels blocks Chet Holmgren's two point driving floating jump shot
Dyson Daniels offensive rebound
+2
Dyson Daniels makes two point tip layup
2-0
Vit Krejci misses three point running jump shot
Nickeil Alexander-Walker defensive rebound
Jalen Williams misses two point driving layup
Jalen Williams turnover (lost ball) (Nickeil Alexander-Walker steals)
Stoppage (Equipment malfunction)
Onyeka Okongwu vs. Chet Holmgren (Cason Wallace gains possession)
Start of 1st Quarter
Hawks lineup change (Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Onyeka Okongwu, Vit Krejci)
Thunder lineup change (Jalen Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace)
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Hawks vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Hawks vs. Thunder
- Date: Monday, December 29, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: Paycom Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -16.5
- Total (Over/Under): 232.5
- Moneyline Odds: Hawks +800, Thunder -1100
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Hawks: 11%
- Thunder: 89%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Hawks 109-123 Thunder.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Hawks a win probability of 11%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 89%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Hawks in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Tuesday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Hawks vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
For additional resources and advice on responsible gambling, please call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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For further insights, explore our expert NBA predictions and the best NBA bets today, while our in-depth analysis includes NBA props, NBA futures, NBA odds, and the latest NBA news.
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