Pelicans vs. Spurs Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Pelicans vs. Spurs NBA game on January 25, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA sport icon
NBA
Pelicans
104
95
Frost Bank Center
Spurs
Frost Bank Center
TEAM1234T
Pelicans
25 31 26 21 104
Spurs
28 19 21 27 95
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Pelicans
    >99%
  • Spurs
    <1%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Pelicans
25 31 26 21 104
Spurs
28 19 21 27 95
Q4 00:22 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:28 Spurs makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:00 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:30 Spurs misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:43 Pelicans makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:21 Pelicans makes two point jump shot
Q4 2:54 Pelicans makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:04 Spurs misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:22 Pelicans makes two point jump shot
Q4 5:13 Spurs misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:22
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  2. Q4 00:26
    +1
    Saddiq Bey makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    104-95
  3. Q4 00:28
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    102-95
  4. Q4 00:35
    Stephon Castle defensive rebound
  5. Q4 1:00
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  6. Q4 1:14
    +1
    Zion Williamson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    101-93
  7. Q4 1:30
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  8. Q4 1:43
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    100-93
  9. Q4 2:01
    Pelicans personal foul
  10. Q4 2:01
    Keldon Johnson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  11. Q4 2:01
    Keldon Johnson misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  12. Q4 2:02
    Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  13. Q4 2:02
    Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  14. Q4 2:21
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    98-93
  15. Q4 2:54
    +3
    Pelicans makes three point jump shot
    96-93
  16. Q4 3:02
    Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
  17. Q4 3:04
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  18. Q4 3:22
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    93-93
  19. Q4 3:22
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  20. Q4 3:22
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  21. Q4 3:40
    Pelicans turnover
  22. Q4 3:56
    Pelicans defensive rebound
  23. Q4 4:19
    Spurs personal foul
  24. Q4 4:19
    +1
    Yves Missi makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    91-93
  25. Q4 4:39
    Pelicans personal foul
  26. Q4 4:39
    Stephon Castle misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  27. Q4 4:39
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle)
  28. Q4 5:09
    Pelicans 60 second timeout
  29. Q4 5:09
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  30. Q4 5:13
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  31. Q4 5:30
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  32. Q4 5:55
    Pelicans personal foul
  33. Q4 5:55
    Pelicans personal foul
  34. Q4 5:55
    +1
    Julian Champagnie makes technical free throw 1 of 1
    87-88
  35. Q4 6:06
    Derik Queen turnover (offensive foul)
  36. Q4 6:10
    Saddiq Bey offensive rebound
  37. Q4 6:24
    Derik Queen defensive rebound
  38. Q4 6:27
    Pelicans personal foul
  39. Q4 6:27
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet)
  40. Q4 6:27
    +1
    De'Aaron Fox makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    87-87
  41. Q4 6:35
    Derik Queen offensive rebound
  42. Q4 6:59
    Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
  43. Q4 7:06
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  44. Q4 7:11
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  45. Q4 7:32
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    85-85
  46. Q4 7:38
    Devin Vassell defensive rebound
  47. Q4 7:40
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  48. Q4 7:51
    Jose Alvarado defensive rebound
  49. Q4 7:55
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  50. Q4 8:02
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  51. Q4 8:17
    Pelicans lineup change (Micah Peavy, Derik Queen, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson)
  52. Q4 8:17
    Saddiq Bey misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  53. Q4 8:42
    Keldon Johnson defensive rebound
  54. Q4 9:14
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  55. Q4 9:20
    Zion Williamson defensive rebound
  56. Q4 9:33
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    84-79
  57. Q4 9:53
    Pelicans 60 second timeout
  58. Q4 10:00
    Julian Champagnie defensive rebound
  59. Q4 10:07
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  60. Q4 10:30
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  61. Q4 11:09
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  62. Q4 11:09
    Zion Williamson offensive rebound
  63. Q4 11:30
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  64. Q4 11:48
    Victor Wembanyama turnover (offensive foul)
  65. Q3 00:00
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  66. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  67. Q4 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie)
  68. Q3 00:02
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  69. Q3 00:03
    Yves Missi offensive rebound
  70. Q3 00:29
    Jose Alvarado defensive rebound
  71. Q3 00:39
    Pelicans personal foul
  72. Q3 00:52
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  73. Q3 1:16
    Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
  74. Q3 1:54
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    82-68
  75. Q3 2:14
    Pelicans 60 second timeout
  76. Q3 2:47
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  77. Q3 2:56
    Spurs turnover
  78. Q3 3:13
    Pelicans offensive rebound
  79. Q3 3:13
    Pelicans lineup change (Micah Peavy, Yves Missi, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matkovic, Trey Murphy III)
  80. Q3 3:17
    Derik Queen defensive rebound
  81. Q3 3:27
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  82. Q3 3:41
    Micah Peavy defensive rebound
  83. Q3 3:44
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  84. Q3 4:07
    +2
    Luke Kornet makes two point tip layup
    80-63
  85. Q3 4:09
    Dylan Harper offensive rebound
  86. Q3 4:15
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  87. Q3 4:30
    +2
    Karlo Matkovic makes two point jump shot
    80-61
  88. Q3 4:34
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  89. Q3 4:56
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    78-61
  90. Q3 5:22
    Pelicans lineup change (Micah Peavy, Derik Queen, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matkovic, Trey Murphy III)
  91. Q3 5:32
    Spurs personal foul
  92. Q3 5:32
    +1
    Saddiq Bey makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    77-58
  93. Q3 5:32
    Pelicans lineup change (Derik Queen, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matkovic, Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey)
  94. Q3 5:43
    Dylan Harper offensive rebound
  95. Q3 6:45
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  96. Q3 7:04
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    72-56
  97. Q3 7:23
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  98. Q3 7:26
    Saddiq Bey offensive rebound
  99. Q3 7:37
    Zion Williamson defensive rebound
  100. Q3 7:50
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    70-53
  101. Q3 7:58
    Victor Wembanyama offensive rebound
  102. Q3 8:12
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    68-53
  103. Q3 8:30
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    66-53
  104. Q3 9:00
    Pelicans personal foul
  105. Q3 9:09
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  106. Q3 9:15
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  107. Q3 9:37
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    63-49
  108. Q3 9:48
    Spurs turnover
  109. Q3 9:53
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  110. Q3 10:02
    Zion Williamson offensive rebound
  111. Q3 10:07
    Zion Williamson offensive rebound
  112. Q3 10:28
    Spurs turnover
  113. Q3 10:38
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  114. Q3 10:38
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  115. Q3 10:57
    +3
    Pelicans makes three point jump shot
    59-49
  116. Q3 11:01
    Trey Murphy III offensive rebound
  117. Q3 11:03
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  118. Q3 11:22
    Pelicans personal foul
  119. Q3 11:22
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    56-48
  120. Q3 11:22
    +1
    Stephon Castle makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    56-49
  121. Q3 11:29
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  122. Q3 11:38
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  123. Q2 00:00
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  124. Q2 00:00
    End of 1st Half.
  125. Q3 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  126. Q3 12:00
    Pelicans offensive rebound
  127. Q2 00:01
    Pelicans offensive rebound
  128. Q2 00:04
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    56-47
  129. Q2 00:04
    Zion Williamson misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  130. Q2 00:24
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    54-47
  131. Q2 1:00
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  132. Q2 1:07
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  133. Q2 1:42
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  134. Q2 1:54
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  135. Q2 2:21
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  136. Q2 2:45
    Spurs personal foul
  137. Q2 3:18
    Spurs personal foul
  138. Q2 3:18
    +1
    Zion Williamson makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    47-41
  139. Q2 3:18
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle)
  140. Q2 3:23
    Yves Missi defensive rebound
  141. Q2 3:35
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    46-41
  142. Q2 3:46
    Pelicans lineup change (Yves Missi, Herbert Jones, Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey, Zion Williamson)
  143. Q2 3:46
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox)
  144. Q2 3:54
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    44-39
  145. Q2 4:17
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  146. Q2 4:38
    Spurs personal foul
  147. Q2 4:38
    +1
    Saddiq Bey makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    42-39
  148. Q2 4:44
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet)
  149. Q2 4:46
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  150. Q2 4:53
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  151. Q2 5:39
    Pelicans turnover
  152. Q2 5:39
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper, Julian Champagnie)
  153. Q2 6:01
    +1
    Luke Kornet makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    37-39
  154. Q2 6:01
    Pelicans lineup change (Micah Peavy, Yves Missi, Jeremiah Fears, Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey)
  155. Q2 6:10
    Dylan Harper defensive rebound
  156. Q2 6:34
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  157. Q2 6:34
    +1
    Julian Champagnie makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    37-37
  158. Q2 6:34
    Pelicans lineup change (Yves Missi, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matkovic, Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey)
  159. Q2 6:34
    +1
    Julian Champagnie makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    37-38
  160. Q2 6:35
    Yves Missi offensive rebound
  161. Q2 7:03
    Yves Missi defensive rebound
  162. Q2 7:05
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    37-36
  163. Q2 7:05
    Pelicans personal foul
  164. Q2 7:05
    Karlo Matkovic turnover
  165. Q2 7:05
    Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 1 of 1
  166. Q2 7:05
    Karlo Matkovic turnover
  167. Q2 7:19
    Zion Williamson defensive rebound
  168. Q2 7:33
    Pelicans personal foul
  169. Q2 7:33
    Pelicans lineup change (Micah Peavy, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matkovic, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson)
  170. Q2 7:38
    Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
  171. Q2 7:57
    +2
    Zion Williamson makes two point floating jump shot
    37-33
  172. Q2 8:11
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    35-33
  173. Q2 8:38
    +3
    Pelicans makes three point jump shot
    35-30
  174. Q2 8:50
    Zion Williamson defensive rebound
  175. Q2 8:53
    Pelicans personal foul
  176. Q2 8:53
    Spurs offensive rebound
  177. Q2 8:53
    Pelicans lineup change (Micah Peavy, Derik Queen, Jeremiah Fears, Jose Alvarado, Zion Williamson)
  178. Q2 8:53
    De'Aaron Fox misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  179. Q2 9:12
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  180. Q2 9:16
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  181. Q2 9:20
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  182. Q2 9:22
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  183. Q2 9:32
    Micah Peavy offensive rebound
  184. Q2 9:51
    Yves Missi defensive rebound
  185. Q2 10:11
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    32-30
  186. Q2 10:32
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    30-30
  187. Q2 10:43
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  188. Q2 10:54
    Zion Williamson defensive rebound
  189. Q2 11:26
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  190. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  191. Q2 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  192. Q1 00:01
    Devin Vassell misses regular free throw 1 of 3
  193. Q1 00:01
    Pelicans lineup change (Yves Missi, Jeremiah Fears, Jose Alvarado, Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson)
  194. Q1 00:18
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    25-27
  195. Q1 00:34
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    23-27
  196. Q1 1:08
    Pelicans defensive rebound
  197. Q1 1:08
    Pelicans lineup change (Micah Peavy, Yves Missi, Jeremiah Fears, Jose Alvarado, Zion Williamson)
  198. Q1 1:44
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    19-24
  199. Q1 1:49
    Pelicans turnover
  200. Q1 1:54
    Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
  201. Q1 2:17
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  202. Q1 2:28
    Spurs turnover
  203. Q1 2:30
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  204. Q1 2:44
    Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
  205. Q1 2:45
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  206. Q1 2:55
    Yves Missi offensive rebound
  207. Q1 2:59
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  208. Q1 3:17
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    17-22
  209. Q1 3:32
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  210. Q1 3:35
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  211. Q1 3:52
    Pelicans 60 second timeout
  212. Q1 3:52
    Spurs lineup change (Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell, De'Aaron Fox, Luke Kornet, Dylan Harper)
  213. Q1 3:56
    Luke Kornet defensive rebound
  214. Q1 4:00
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  215. Q1 4:19
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    17-18
  216. Q1 4:24
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  217. Q1 4:36
    Jeremiah Fears defensive rebound
  218. Q1 4:37
    Spurs misses two point jump shot
  219. Q1 4:42
    Luke Kornet offensive rebound
  220. Q1 4:56
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    17-16
  221. Q1 5:01
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  222. Q1 5:01
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  223. Q1 5:21
    Yves Missi defensive rebound
  224. Q1 5:44
    Pelicans offensive rebound
  225. Q1 5:44
    Pelicans lineup change (Yves Missi, Jeremiah Fears, Karlo Matkovic, Trey Murphy III, Saddiq Bey)
  226. Q1 6:04
    Pelicans personal foul
  227. Q1 6:04
    +1
    Harrison Barnes makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    12-16
  228. Q1 6:33
    Pelicans defensive rebound
  229. Q1 6:33
    Spurs 60 second timeout
  230. Q1 6:33
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, Stephon Castle, Luke Kornet, Julian Champagnie)
  231. Q1 7:19
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Devin Vassell, Victor Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  232. Q1 7:19
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    8-14
  233. Q1 7:43
    Pelicans turnover
  234. Q1 7:58
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    8-11
  235. Q1 8:21
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    6-11
  236. Q1 8:33
    Spurs personal foul
  237. Q1 8:33
    Saddiq Bey misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  238. Q1 8:33
    Pelicans offensive rebound
  239. Q1 8:47
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  240. Q1 9:16
    Spurs misses three point jump shot
  241. Q1 9:31
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  242. Q1 9:45
    +2
    Spurs makes two point jump shot
    2-8
  243. Q1 9:59
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  244. Q1 10:18
    Victor Wembanyama misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  245. Q1 10:18
    +1
    Victor Wembanyama makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    2-6
  246. Q1 10:31
    Victor Wembanyama defensive rebound
  247. Q1 11:08
    +3
    Spurs makes three point jump shot
    2-3
  248. Q1 11:26
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    2-0
  249. Q1 11:37
    Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
  250. Q1 12:00
    Spurs lineup change (Harrison Barnes, Victor Wembanyama, De'Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Julian Champagnie)
  251. Q1 12:00
    Start of 1st Quarter
Box Score
Pelicans
PosPlayerPts
Spurs
PosPlayerPts

Pelicans vs. Spurs: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Pelicans vs. Spurs
  • Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Frost Bank Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Spurs favored at -11.5
  • Total (Over/Under): 240
  • Moneyline Odds: Pelicans +410, Spurs -480

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Pelicans: 20%
  • Spurs: 80%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Pelicans 113-123 Spurs.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Pelicans a win probability of 20%, while the Spurs have a win probability of 80%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Spurs are more likely to beat the Pelicans in the NBA game at Frost Bank Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Pelicans vs. Spurs predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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