Raptors vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks and Odds

Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Raptors vs. Thunder NBA game on January 25, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
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FINAL
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NBA
Raptors
103
101
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Thunder
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TEAM1234T
Raptors
25 29 25 24 103
Thunder
30 20 31 21 101
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Raptors
    69%
  • Thunder
    31%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Raptors
25 29 25 24 103
Thunder
30 20 31 21 101
Q4 00:00 Thunder makes three point jump shot
Q4 00:37 Raptors misses two point jump shot
Q4 00:57 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 00:58 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:16 Raptors makes three point jump shot
Q4 1:49 Raptors makes three point jump shot
Q4 3:10 Raptors misses three point jump shot
Q4 4:04 Thunder makes two point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
Q4 4:24 Raptors makes two point jump shot
Q4 4:35 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. Q4 00:00
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    103-102
  2. Q4 00:00
    End of 4th Quarter.
  3. Q4 00:08
    Raptors lineup change (Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, Jamal Shead, Ja'Kobe Walter)
  4. Q4 00:08
    Thunder personal foul
  5. Q4 00:08
    +1
    Immanuel Quickley makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    103-99
  6. Q4 00:13
    Jamal Shead misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  7. Q4 00:13
    Jamal Shead misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  8. Q4 00:26
    Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
  9. Q4 00:33
    Thunder 60 second timeout
  10. Q4 00:37
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  11. Q4 00:57
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    101-99
  12. Q4 00:58
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  13. Q4 1:16
    +3
    Raptors makes three point jump shot
    101-97
  14. Q4 1:31
    Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
  15. Q4 1:49
    +3
    Raptors makes three point jump shot
    98-97
  16. Q4 2:05
    Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
  17. Q4 2:08
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    95-97
  18. Q4 2:18
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  19. Q4 2:45
    Thunder challenge timeout
  20. Q4 2:49
    Thunder turnover
  21. Q4 3:09
    Thunder personal foul
  22. Q4 3:09
    Raptors lineup change (Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, Jamal Shead, Ja'Kobe Walter)
  23. Q4 3:10
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  24. Q4 4:04
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)
    93-96
  25. Q4 4:24
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    93-94
  26. Q4 4:35
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  27. Q4 5:03
    Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
  28. Q4 5:24
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  29. Q4 5:24
    Thunder defensive rebound
  30. Q4 5:40
    +2
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes two point jump shot (Aaron Wiggins assists)
    89-94
  31. Q4 5:54
    +1
    Brandon Ingram makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    88-92
  32. Q4 5:54
    +1
    Brandon Ingram makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    89-92
  33. Q4 6:04
    Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
  34. Q4 6:07
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  35. Q4 6:24
    Raptors offensive rebound
  36. Q4 6:24
    +1
    Sandro Mamukelashvili makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    87-92
  37. Q4 6:35
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  38. Q4 6:53
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng)
  39. Q4 7:11
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    86-92
  40. Q4 7:38
    Thunder offensive rebound
  41. Q4 7:38
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Ousmane Dieng)
  42. Q4 7:38
    Instant replay
  43. Q4 7:38
    Raptors lineup change (Ochai Agbaji, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Gradey Dick, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley)
  44. Q4 7:38
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Ousmane Dieng)
  45. Q4 7:38
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Luguentz Dort, Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng)
  46. Q4 7:38
    +1
    Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    86-90
  47. Q4 7:48
    Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
  48. Q4 7:53
    Ochai Agbaji offensive rebound
  49. Q4 8:14
    Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound
  50. Q4 8:37
    Sandro Mamukelashvili turnover (offensive foul)
  51. Q4 8:37
    Raptors lineup change (Ochai Agbaji, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Gradey Dick, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley)
  52. Q4 9:00
    Thunder defensive rebound
  53. Q4 9:00
    Raptors lineup change (Ochai Agbaji, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Gradey Dick, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett)
  54. Q4 9:01
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  55. Q4 9:25
    Raptors defensive rebound
  56. Q4 9:28
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  57. Q4 9:51
    +3
    Raptors makes three point jump shot
    86-85
  58. Q4 9:58
    RJ Barrett defensive rebound
  59. Q4 10:39
    Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
  60. Q4 10:42
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  61. Q4 10:55
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  62. Q4 11:07
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  63. Q4 11:24
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    81-83
  64. Q4 11:40
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    81-81
  65. Q4 11:46
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  66. Q3 00:00
    +3
    Raptors makes three point jump shot
    79-81
  67. Q3 00:00
    End of 3rd Quarter.
  68. Q4 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Aaron Wiggins, Ousmane Dieng)
  69. Q3 00:14
    Raptors personal foul
  70. Q3 00:14
    +1
    Aaron Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    76-81
  71. Q3 00:45
    Raptors personal foul
  72. Q3 00:45
    +1
    Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    76-78
  73. Q3 00:45
    +1
    Isaiah Joe makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    76-79
  74. Q3 00:45
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Chet Holmgren, Aaron Wiggins, Ousmane Dieng)
  75. Q3 1:19
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    73-77
  76. Q3 1:29
    Thunder turnover
  77. Q3 1:51
    Jamal Shead defensive rebound
  78. Q3 1:59
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
  79. Q3 2:03
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  80. Q3 2:15
    Thunder personal foul
  81. Q3 2:37
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    70-75
  82. Q3 3:00
    Raptors personal foul
  83. Q3 3:00
    +1
    Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    70-72
  84. Q3 3:00
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng)
  85. Q3 3:17
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    70-71
  86. Q3 3:19
    Jamal Shead defensive rebound
  87. Q3 3:46
    Raptors personal foul
  88. Q3 3:46
    +1
    Luguentz Dort makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    68-71
  89. Q3 3:59
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    68-68
  90. Q3 4:07
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  91. Q3 4:29
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    66-68
  92. Q3 4:38
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  93. Q3 5:01
    Raptors personal foul
  94. Q3 5:01
    Raptors lineup change (Sandro Mamukelashvili, Gradey Dick, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Shead, Ja'Kobe Walter)
  95. Q3 5:20
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Luguentz Dort, Jaylin Williams, Ousmane Dieng)
  96. Q3 5:42
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    66-64
  97. Q3 5:57
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  98. Q3 6:05
    Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
  99. Q3 6:40
    Raptors personal foul
  100. Q3 6:40
    Raptors lineup change (Sandro Mamukelashvili, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, Jamal Shead, Ja'Kobe Walter)
  101. Q3 6:48
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  102. Q3 7:30
    +1
    Scottie Barnes makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    62-59
  103. Q3 7:30
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Ousmane Dieng)
  104. Q3 7:32
    Thunder turnover
  105. Q3 7:36
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  106. Q3 7:55
    Scottie Barnes offensive rebound
  107. Q3 7:55
    Scottie Barnes turnover (offensive foul)
  108. Q3 8:14
    Raptors personal foul
  109. Q3 8:28
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    61-58
  110. Q3 8:52
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    59-58
  111. Q3 8:59
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  112. Q3 9:25
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    59-55
  113. Q3 9:37
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    59-52
  114. Q3 9:45
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  115. Q3 9:58
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  116. Q3 10:12
    Brandon Ingram offensive rebound
  117. Q3 10:16
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  118. Q3 10:23
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  119. Q3 10:41
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  120. Q3 10:53
    Jaylin Williams offensive rebound
  121. Q3 11:02
    Raptors personal foul
  122. Q3 11:12
    RJ Barrett offensive rebound
  123. Q3 11:45
    Brandon Ingram misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  124. Q2 00:00
    Scottie Barnes defensive rebound
  125. Q2 00:00
    Raptors offensive rebound
  126. Q3 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
  127. Q3 12:00
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
  128. Q2 00:10
    +3
    Raptors makes three point jump shot
    54-50
  129. Q2 00:33
    Raptors personal foul
  130. Q2 00:33
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  131. Q2 00:33
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    51-50
  132. Q2 00:48
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    51-49
  133. Q2 00:48
    Thunder lineup change (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Kenrich Williams, Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Aaron Wiggins)
  134. Q2 1:08
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  135. Q2 1:28
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  136. Q2 2:01
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    49-49
  137. Q2 2:10
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  138. Q2 2:30
    Thunder turnover
  139. Q2 2:52
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  140. Q2 2:54
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  141. Q2 2:58
    Sandro Mamukelashvili misses two point jump shot
  142. Q2 2:59
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  143. Q2 3:33
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    45-47
  144. Q2 3:38
    Raptors offensive rebound
  145. Q2 3:39
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  146. Q2 4:13
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  147. Q2 4:14
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  148. Q2 4:22
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  149. Q2 4:32
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  150. Q2 4:52
    Thunder lineup change (Isaiah Joe, Kenrich Williams, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins)
  151. Q2 4:56
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  152. Q2 5:02
    Ochai Agbaji turnover (bad pass)
  153. Q2 5:53
    Thunder turnover
  154. Q2 6:19
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  155. Q2 6:25
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  156. Q2 6:41
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    39-39
  157. Q2 6:58
    +1
    Sandro Mamukelashvili makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    38-36
  158. Q2 6:58
    +1
    Sandro Mamukelashvili makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    39-36
  159. Q2 7:18
    Raptors personal foul
  160. Q2 7:28
    Raptors offensive rebound
  161. Q2 7:28
    +1
    Ochai Agbaji makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    37-36
  162. Q2 7:43
    Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
  163. Q2 8:25
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    34-36
  164. Q2 8:46
    Raptors personal foul
  165. Q2 8:46
    Thunder offensive rebound
  166. Q2 8:46
    Raptors lineup change (Ochai Agbaji, Sandro Mamukelashvili, Gradey Dick, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley)
  167. Q2 8:46
    +1
    Cason Wallace makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    34-33
  168. Q2 8:58
    +1
    Ja'Kobe Walter makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    33-32
  169. Q2 8:58
    Raptors lineup change (Gradey Dick, Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, Ja'Kobe Walter)
  170. Q2 8:58
    +1
    Ja'Kobe Walter makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    34-32
  171. Q2 9:03
    Isaiah Joe misses three point jump shot
  172. Q2 9:11
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  173. Q2 9:13
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  174. Q2 9:47
    Raptors turnover
  175. Q2 9:52
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  176. Q2 10:33
    Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
  177. Q2 10:51
    RJ Barrett defensive rebound
  178. Q2 10:54
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  179. Q2 11:11
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    30-30
  180. Q2 11:21
    Gradey Dick defensive rebound
  181. Q2 11:41
    Immanuel Quickley offensive rebound
  182. Q1 00:00
    End of 1st Quarter.
  183. Q2 12:00
    Raptors lineup change (Gradey Dick, Scottie Barnes, Immanuel Quickley, Ja'Kobe Walter, RJ Barrett)
  184. Q1 00:01
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  185. Q1 00:24
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    25-30
  186. Q1 00:34
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    23-30
  187. Q1 00:43
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  188. Q1 00:54
    Raptors personal foul
  189. Q1 00:54
    +1
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    23-27
  190. Q1 1:15
    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
  191. Q1 1:39
    +1
    Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    20-22
  192. Q1 1:39
    +1
    Kenrich Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    20-23
  193. Q1 1:49
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  194. Q1 1:52
    Ochai Agbaji offensive rebound
  195. Q1 2:07
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  196. Q1 2:15
    +1
    Scottie Barnes makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    19-21
  197. Q1 2:15
    +1
    Scottie Barnes makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    20-21
  198. Q1 2:27
    Gradey Dick defensive rebound
  199. Q1 2:33
    Raptors misses three point jump shot
  200. Q1 2:33
    Thunder offensive rebound
  201. Q1 2:37
    Raptors lineup change (Ochai Agbaji, Gradey Dick, Scottie Barnes, Jamal Shead, RJ Barrett)
  202. Q1 3:09
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    18-21
  203. Q1 3:22
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  204. Q1 3:54
    Thunder turnover
  205. Q1 4:04
    Thunder defensive rebound
  206. Q1 4:17
    Raptors personal foul
  207. Q1 4:17
    Chet Holmgren misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  208. Q1 4:17
    Raptors lineup change (Gradey Dick, Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Shead, Ja'Kobe Walter)
  209. Q1 4:32
    Ousmane Dieng defensive rebound
  210. Q1 4:57
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    16-15
  211. Q1 5:32
    Thunder personal foul
  212. Q1 5:32
    Raptors offensive rebound
  213. Q1 5:32
    +1
    Sandro Mamukelashvili makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    14-12
  214. Q1 5:43
    +2
    Thunder makes two point jump shot
    13-12
  215. Q1 6:05
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  216. Q1 6:07
    Thunder personal foul
  217. Q1 6:07
    Immanuel Quickley misses regular free throw 2 of 2
  218. Q1 6:16
    Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
  219. Q1 6:40
    Ja'Kobe Walter defensive rebound
  220. Q1 6:44
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  221. Q1 7:00
    Thunder personal foul
  222. Q1 7:00
    Sandro Mamukelashvili misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  223. Q1 7:00
    Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Chet Holmgren, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Jaylin Williams)
  224. Q1 7:30
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    9-8
  225. Q1 7:37
    Raptors offensive rebound
  226. Q1 7:51
    Raptors 60 second timeout
  227. Q1 8:05
    Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
  228. Q1 8:08
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  229. Q1 8:14
    Thunder turnover
  230. Q1 8:24
    Thunder defensive rebound
  231. Q1 8:40
    +3
    Thunder makes three point jump shot
    7-6
  232. Q1 8:52
    Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
  233. Q1 8:54
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  234. Q1 9:04
    Thunder misses three point jump shot
  235. Q1 9:24
    Immanuel Quickley defensive rebound
  236. Q1 9:27
    Thunder misses two point jump shot
  237. Q1 10:06
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    7-1
  238. Q1 10:23
    Sandro Mamukelashvili defensive rebound
  239. Q1 10:38
    +2
    Raptors makes two point jump shot
    5-1
  240. Q1 10:41
    Scottie Barnes offensive rebound
  241. Q1 10:47
    Raptors misses two point jump shot
  242. Q1 10:56
    RJ Barrett defensive rebound
  243. Q1 11:30
    RJ Barrett defensive rebound
  244. Q1 11:43
    Luguentz Dort offensive rebound
  245. Q1 12:00
    Raptors lineup change (Sandro Mamukelashvili, Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett)
  246. Q1 12:00
    Scottie Barnes vs. Chet Holmgren (Jaylin Williams gains possession)
Box Score
Raptors
PosPlayerPts
Thunder
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Raptors vs. Thunder: Detailed Breakdown

Matchup Overview

  • Teams: Raptors vs. Thunder
  • Date: Sunday, January 25, 2026
  • Time: 7:00 PM ET
  • Venue: Paycom Center

Current Betting Odds

  • Spread: Thunder favored at -11
  • Total (Over/Under): 225.5
  • Moneyline Odds: Raptors +400, Thunder -480

Dimers' Win Probabilities

  • Raptors: 20%
  • Thunder: 80%

Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.

Projected Final Score

Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Raptors 107-117 Thunder.

This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.

Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Raptors a win probability of 20%, while the Thunder have a win probability of 80%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Raptors in the NBA game at Paycom Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.

Our Raptors vs. Thunder predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.

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