Thunder vs. Mavericks Prediction, Picks and Odds
Our detailed prediction and analysis for the Thunder vs. Mavericks NBA game on March 1, 2026 is featured below. Drawing from 10,000 game simulations, we provide expert picks, betting odds, and insights.
FINAL
NBA
FINAL
NBA
Thunder
100
87
American Airlines Center
Mavericks
American Airlines Center
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 36 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 100 |
Mavericks | 25 | 24 | 20 | 18 | 87 |
Live Probabilities
Spread
Over / Under
Moneyline
- Thunder
- Mavericks
Win Probability
| TEAM | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thunder | 36 | 22 | 25 | 17 | 100 |
Mavericks | 25 | 24 | 20 | 18 | 87 |
Q4 00:17 Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:30 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 00:52 Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Q4 1:04 Thunder misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:25 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Q4 1:45 Thunder misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:06 Mavericks makes three point jump shot
Q4 2:36 Mavericks misses two point jump shot
Q4 2:57 Thunder makes two point jump shot
Q4 3:11 Mavericks misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
ALL
- End of 4th Quarter.
- Thunder defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Dwight Powell defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams, Aaron Wiggins)
- Dwight Powell offensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Dwight Powell defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot100-87
- Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
- Mavericks personal foul
- +1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 2100-84
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot99-84
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Thunder personal foul
- Dwight Powell misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- +1Dwight Powell makes regular free throw 2 of 297-84
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Thunder turnover
- Mavericks personal foul
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Moussa Cisse, Dwight Powell, AJ Johnson)
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot97-83
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot97-81
- Thunder 60 second timeout
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams)
- AJ Johnson defensive rebound
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot95-81
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Thunder personal foul
- Thunder turnover
- Thunder offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams)
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- AJ Johnson offensive rebound
- AJ Johnson misses two point running layup
- Thunder turnover
- Thunder personal foul
- +1Caleb Martin makes regular free throw 1 of 295-78
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Moussa Cisse, Caleb Martin, AJ Johnson)
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Isaiah Hartenstein, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe)
- +1Caleb Martin makes regular free throw 2 of 295-79
- Caleb Martin defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot95-77
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot93-77
- Dwight Powell defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks personal foul
- Mavericks lineup change (Moussa Cisse, Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, AJ Johnson)
- Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe)
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot93-75
- Mavericks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot93-73
- AJ Johnson defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Brandon Williams defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Thunder personal foul
- Thunder 60 second timeout
- Instant replay
- Jared McCain defensive rebound
- Daniel Gafford misses two point dunk
- Mavericks 60 second timeout
- +3Thunder makes three point jump shot93-71
- Mavericks personal foul
- Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, AJ Johnson, Daniel Gafford)
- Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- +3Thunder makes three point jump shot90-71
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot87-71
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot87-69
- Isaiah Joe offensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Thunder personal foul
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot85-69
- Alex Caruso defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Thunder personal foul
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Thunder offensive rebound
- End of 3rd Quarter.
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, Brandon Williams, Daniel Gafford)
- Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso, Isaiah Joe, Chet Holmgren)
- Mavericks turnover
- Mavericks personal foul
- +1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 282-69
- +1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 283-69
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot81-69
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot81-67
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot79-67
- Thunder offensive rebound
- Mavericks personal foul
- Aaron Wiggins misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Thunder offensive rebound
- +1Aaron Wiggins makes regular free throw 2 of 279-64
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Alex Caruso defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks personal foul
- +1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 1 of 277-64
- +1Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes regular free throw 2 of 278-64
- Mavericks lineup change (Ryan Nembhard, Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, AJ Johnson, Daniel Gafford)
- Dwight Powell offensive rebound
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot76-64
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Khris Middleton defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot76-62
- +3Thunder makes three point jump shot76-60
- Thunder 60 second timeout
- Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams, Aaron Wiggins)
- Mavericks lineup change (Ryan Nembhard, Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, Dwight Powell, AJ Johnson)
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot73-60
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot73-58
- Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Ryan Nembhard turnover
- Dwight Powell defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot71-58
- Thunder turnover
- Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot71-55
- Cason Wallace defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Moussa Cisse, Dwight Powell, AJ Johnson)
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren)
- +3Thunder makes three point jump shot69-55
- Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
- Thunder personal foul
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks personal foul
- Moussa Cisse turnover (offensive foul)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Moussa Cisse, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams, AJ Johnson)
- Thunder personal foul
- Mavericks 60 second timeout
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot66-55
- Mavericks turnover
- Brandon Williams defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Cason Wallace defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Thunder personal foul
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Moussa Cisse, Khris Middleton, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams)
- Thunder turnover
- Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- Max Christie defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Brandon Williams offensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Thunder turnover
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot64-55
- Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks personal foul
- Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot64-53
- Mavericks personal foul
- Mavericks turnover
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot62-53
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot60-53
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot60-51
- Thunder personal foul
- +1Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 1 of 258-50
- +1Daniel Gafford makes regular free throw 2 of 258-51
- Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- End of 1st Half.
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, Brandon Williams, Daniel Gafford)
- Max Christie defensive rebound
- Mavericks personal foul
- Isaiah Hartenstein misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Thunder offensive rebound
- Isaiah Hartenstein misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot58-49
- Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
- Mavericks personal foul
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort)
- Daniel Gafford offensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Caleb Martin defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Ryan Nembhard defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Thunder personal foul
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot58-47
- Thunder defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, Daniel Gafford)
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot56-47
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot54-47
- Dwight Powell defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Dwight Powell defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Thunder personal foul
- +1Ryan Nembhard makes regular free throw 1 of 254-43
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Chet Holmgren)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell, Daniel Gafford)
- +1Ryan Nembhard makes regular free throw 2 of 254-44
- +3Thunder makes three point jump shot54-42
- Cason Wallace offensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot51-42
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot51-39
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot49-39
- Max Christie defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot49-37
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot49-35
- Mavericks 60 second timeout
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Isaiah Hartenstein, Isaiah Joe, Chet Holmgren)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot47-35
- Mavericks personal foul
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Jared McCain, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Moussa Cisse, Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell)
- Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot45-35
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot43-35
- Max Christie defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Kenrich Williams defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
- Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Moussa Cisse offensive rebound
- Mavericks turnover
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Moussa Cisse, Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, Brandon Williams)
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot43-33
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot41-33
- Max Christie defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Alex Caruso defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Khris Middleton defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Thunder personal foul
- +1Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 241-29
- +1Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 241-30
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, Brandon Williams, Daniel Gafford)
- Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Thunder personal foul
- Thunder 60 second timeout
- Instant replay
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Caleb Martin offensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Thunder personal foul
- Jaylin Williams turnover (offensive foul)
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot41-28
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot41-25
- Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
- Brandon Williams misses two point jump shot
- Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- +3Thunder makes three point jump shot39-25
- Jared McCain defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Daniel Gafford defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- End of 1st Quarter.
- Mavericks lineup change (Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, Klay Thompson, Brandon Williams, Daniel Gafford)
- Thunder lineup change (Jared McCain, Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams, Kenrich Williams)
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot36-25
- Mavericks personal foul
- Caleb Martin turnover (offensive foul)
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot34-25
- Alex Caruso defensive rebound
- Thunder personal foul
- +1Caleb Martin makes regular free throw 1 of 232-25
- Caleb Martin misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Jaylin Williams defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot32-24
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot30-24
- Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- AJ Johnson defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot30-22
- Thunder 60 second timeout
- Thunder lineup change (Alex Caruso, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Isaiah Joe, Jaylin Williams, Aaron Wiggins)
- Mavericks lineup change (Ryan Nembhard, Moussa Cisse, Caleb Martin, Klay Thompson, AJ Johnson)
- Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- Moussa Cisse defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot30-20
- Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks turnover
- AJ Johnson defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Isaiah Joe defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Thunder turnover
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot28-20
- Mavericks personal foul
- +1Isaiah Joe makes technical free throw 1 of 128-17
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Moussa Cisse, Klay Thompson, AJ Johnson)
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot27-17
- Mavericks personal foul
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot25-17
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot25-15
- Mavericks personal foul
- Klay Thompson turnover (offensive foul)
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell, AJ Johnson)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren)
- Max Christie defensive rebound
- Isaiah Hartenstein offensive rebound
- Mavericks personal foul
- +1Isaiah Hartenstein makes regular free throw 1 of 223-15
- Isaiah Hartenstein misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Ryan Nembhard, Khris Middleton, Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell)
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot22-15
- +3Thunder makes three point jump shot22-13
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- Thunder offensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Chet Holmgren defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- +3Thunder makes three point jump shot19-13
- Cason Wallace defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Max Christie defensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot16-13
- Dwight Powell defensive rebound
- Thunder misses two point jump shot
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot16-11
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot16-9
- Mavericks 60 second timeout
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Khris Middleton, Klay Thompson, Dwight Powell, Brandon Williams)
- Thunder lineup change (Cason Wallace, Isaiah Hartenstein, Luguentz Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren)
- Cason Wallace defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot14-9
- Cason Wallace defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot12-9
- Mavericks turnover
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot10-9
- Mavericks violation
- Luguentz Dort defensive rebound
- Daniel Gafford offensive rebound
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Mavericks misses two point jump shot
- Thunder personal foul
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander turnover (offensive foul)
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defensive rebound
- Mavericks misses three point jump shot
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot8-9
- Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound
- Thunder personal foul
- Caleb Martin misses regular free throw 1 of 2
- Mavericks offensive rebound
- Caleb Martin misses regular free throw 2 of 2
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot6-9
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot4-9
- Mavericks personal foul
- +1Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 1 of 23-7
- +1Chet Holmgren makes regular free throw 2 of 24-7
- Thunder personal foul
- +1Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 1 of 22-6
- +1Brandon Williams makes regular free throw 2 of 22-7
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Mavericks defensive rebound
- Stoppage (Out of bounds)
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- Chet Holmgren offensive rebound
- Thunder misses three point jump shot
- +3Mavericks makes three point jump shot2-5
- +2Thunder makes two point jump shot2-2
- +2Mavericks makes two point jump shot0-2
- Mavericks lineup change (Max Christie, Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, Brandon Williams, Daniel Gafford)
- Start of 1st Quarter
- (Caleb Martin gains possession)
Box Score
Player Stats
Team Stats
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pos | Player | Pts | |
|---|---|---|---|
Thunder vs. Mavericks: Detailed Breakdown
Matchup Overview
- Teams: Thunder vs. Mavericks
- Date: Sunday, March 1, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- Venue: American Airlines Center
Current Betting Odds
- Spread: Thunder favored at -16.5
- Total (Over/Under): 236.5
- Moneyline Odds: Thunder -1200, Mavericks +800
Dimers' Win Probabilities
- Thunder: 88%
- Mavericks: 12%
Dimers' predictive model, renowned for its accuracy, assesses each team's chances by simulating the outcome of the game 10,000 times. This method provides a precise and unbiased view.
Projected Final Score
Our predicted final score for this NBA matchup is Thunder 124-111 Mavericks.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Thunder a win probability of 88%, while the Mavericks have a win probability of 12%. Discover the best spread, over/under, and moneyline odds for the game on this page.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Thunder are more likely to beat the Mavericks in the NBA game at American Airlines Center on Monday. Discover the best spread, over/under and moneyline odds, picks and probabilities for the game on this page.
Our Thunder vs. Mavericks predictions, based on sophisticated simulations and current data, guide you in making informed decisions. Remember to bet responsibly and within your financial limits.
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