NBA first basket predictions and picks for Friday, November 13, 2026

Victor Wembanyama leads Dimers' NBA first basket predictions for Friday, November 13, 2026, with a 19.1% chance of scoring the opening basket when his Spurs host the Warriors.

But the player most likely to score first isn't always the best bet. We compare our projections with available sportsbook and prediction market odds to identify where Friday's first basket betting value lies.

NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players

Here are Friday's 10 most likely first basket scorers, based on our NBA player projections.

• Victor Wembanyama (Spurs vs. Warriors): 19.1% probability
• Yaxel Lendeborg (Warriors @ Spurs): 16.9%
• Jalen Brunson (Knicks @ Pacers): 16.1%
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat vs. Cavaliers): 15.9%
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder @ Clippers): 15.7%
• Tyler Herro (Bucks @ Magic): 14.3%
• Franz Wagner (Magic vs. Bucks): 14.1%
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks @ Pacers): 13.8%
• Ajay Mitchell (Thunder @ Clippers): 13.8%
• Donovan Mitchell (Cavaliers @ Heat): 13.7%

Best NBA first basket bet tonight: Yaxel Lendeborg (+1000)

While Victor Wembanyama is Friday's likeliest first basket scorer, the Warriors' Yaxel Lendeborg offers the best betting value when comparing our in-house probabilities with available odds.

• Matchup: Warriors vs. Spurs (9:30 PM ET)
• Odds: +1000 (FanDuel)
• Implied probability: 9.1%
• Dimers' probability: 16.9%
• Edge: 7.8%

Our model gives Lendeborg a 16.9% chance of scoring the opening basket against the Spurs, compared with the 9.1% implied by FanDuel's +1000 odds.

That's a 7.8% edge, the largest identified across Friday's first basket markets.

More NBA first basket picks, projections and offer

Our NBA player props page features our full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections show first basket probabilities for every expected starter.

Want the full picture? Unlock our full range of NBA projections and player props with Dimers Pro.

If you’re placing a first basket bet tonight, here’s the latest offer from bet365.

How we project NBA first baskets

Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's scoring opportunities.

Predictions may change as starting lineups are confirmed or new injury information becomes available. Learn how our predictions work.

This article uses a human-written template, with player projections, matchups, and odds populated automatically.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.