NBA first basket predictions and picks for Wednesday, November 11, 2026

Victor Wembanyama leads Dimers' NBA first basket predictions for Wednesday, November 11, 2026, with an 18.7% chance of scoring the opening basket when his Spurs face the Bulls.

But the player most likely to score first isn't always the best bet. We compare our projections with available sportsbook and prediction market odds to identify where Wednesday's first basket betting value lies.

NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players

Here are Wednesday's 10 most likely first basket scorers, based on our NBA player projections.

• Victor Wembanyama (Spurs @ Bulls): 18.7% probability
• Luka Doncic (Lakers @ Bucks): 18.3%
• Anthony Davis (Wizards @ Pacers): 16.6%
• Stephen Curry (Warriors @ Rockets): 16.0%
• Ty Jerome (Grizzlies vs. Nuggets): 15.9%
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder @ Trail Blazers): 15.6%
• Jalen Brunson (Knicks vs. Cavaliers): 15.2%
• Nikola Jokic (Nuggets @ Grizzlies): 14.4%
• Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks vs. Cavaliers): 14.3%
• Ajay Mitchell (Thunder @ Trail Blazers): 14.0%

Best NBA first basket bet tonight: Norman Powell (+1200)

While Victor Wembanyama is Wednesday's likeliest first basket scorer, the Bulls' Norman Powell offers the best betting value when comparing our in-house probabilities with available odds.

• Matchup: Spurs vs. Bulls (8:00 PM ET)
• Odds: +1200 (FanDuel)
• Implied probability: 7.7%
• Dimers' probability: 12.5%
• Edge: 4.8%

Our model gives Powell a 12.5% chance of scoring the opening basket against the Spurs, compared with the 7.7% implied by FanDuel's +1200 odds.

That's a 4.8% edge, the largest identified across Wednesday's first basket markets.

More NBA first basket picks, projections and offer

Our NBA player props page features our full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections show first basket probabilities for every expected starter.

Want the full picture? Unlock our full range of NBA projections and player props with Dimers Pro.

If you’re placing a first basket bet tonight, here’s the latest offer from bet365.

How we project NBA first baskets

Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's scoring opportunities.

Predictions may change as starting lineups are confirmed or new injury information becomes available. Learn how our predictions work.

This article uses a human-written template, with player projections, matchups, and odds populated automatically.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.