NBA first basket predictions and picks for Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leads Dimers' NBA first basket predictions for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, with a 15.9% chance of scoring the opening basket when his Thunder face the Trail Blazers.

But the player most likely to score first isn't always the best bet. We compare our projections with available sportsbook and prediction market odds to identify where Tuesday's first basket betting value lies.

NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players

Here are Tuesday's 10 most likely first basket scorers, based on our NBA player projections.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder @ Trail Blazers): 15.9% probability
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat @ Jazz): 15.5%
• Franz Wagner (Magic @ Kings): 13.9%
• Ajay Mitchell (Thunder @ Trail Blazers): 13.4%
• Jayson Tatum (Celtics @ 76ers): 13.1%
• Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers vs. Thunder): 12.9%
• Paul George (Celtics @ 76ers): 12.6%
• Tyrese Maxey (76ers vs. Celtics): 12.5%
• Lauri Markkanen (Jazz vs. Heat): 12.5%
• Jaylen Brown (76ers vs. Celtics): 11.6%

Even the top-ranked player has a 15.9% chance of scoring first, which is why the odds matter as much as the projection.

Best NBA first basket bet tonight: Zach LaVine (+1200)

While Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is Tuesday's likeliest first basket scorer, the Kings' Zach LaVine offers the best betting value when comparing our in-house probabilities with available odds.

• Matchup: Magic vs. Kings (10:00 PM ET)
• Odds: +1200 (FanDuel)
• Implied probability: 7.7%
• Dimers' probability: 11.3%
• Edge: 3.6%

Our model gives LaVine a 11.3% chance of scoring the opening basket against the Magic, compared with the 7.7% implied by ]FanDuel](https://www.dimers.com/betting/fanduel-sportsbook)'s +1200 odds.

That's a 3.6% edge, the largest identified across Tuesday's first basket markets.

LaVine is also in our top 10 most likely first basket scorers above, so this pick ranks well on both probability and price.

Our NBA player props page includes a full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections page shows first basket probabilities for every player expected to start tonight.

More NBA first basket picks and projections

Our NBA player props page features our full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections show first basket probabilities for every expected starter.

Want the full picture? Unlock our full range of NBA projections and player props with Dimers Pro.

How we project NBA first baskets

Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's scoring opportunities.

Predictions may change as starting lineups are confirmed or new injury information becomes available. Learn how our predictions work.

This article uses a human-written template, with player projections, matchups, and odds populated automatically.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.